In a battle featuring two schools that prefer to run the football, Lobos (+7.5) are set to welcome the Wyoming Cowboys (-7.5) to New Mexico. This conference showdown kicks off at 2:30 p.m. ET and ATSN is in line to televise the action.
Wyoming Cowboys vs. New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview
New Mexico is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 7.5 points in this Saturday MWC game. The Cowboys are also receiving -330 moneyline odds while the Lobos are +250. If one school can create a bunch of points early it will produce a reasonable live betting opportunity. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 45.5 points.
Sharp bettors are siding with the under, as the game’s O/U originally opened at 47.
The Cowboys are 4-7 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.9 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 5-5. The Lobos have lost 4.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-7 ATS and the over’s hit in seven of their games.
The Cowboys have gone 5-6 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against conference opponents. The Lobos are 3-8 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
When these two teams met last year, Wyoming won easily 42-3.
Wyoming enters this matchup on a zero-game winless skid while New Mexico has won zero in a row. The Cowboys are coming off a 35-27 victory over Air Force last week. Tyler Vander Waal completed just 14-of-26 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns. Jevon Bigelow (35 rushing yards on nine attempts) led the ground attack. Tyree Mayfield (four receptions, 112 yards) and James Price (four catches, 54 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
New Mexico just dropped an ugly 45-14 game to Boise State. The defense allowed the Broncos to kill the clock by rushing for 227 yards on 41 attempts, including two rush TDs. Alexander Mattison torched the defense, putting up 145 rushing yards and a score on 20 attempts, along with 40 yards on three catches for Boise State. For New Mexico, Sheriron Jones completed eight-of-13 passes for 103 yards and one interception. Tyrone Owens (41 rushing yards on 14 attempts) and the signal-caller Jones (56 yards on 12 carries) mounted the running attack while Delane Hart-Johnson (four receptions, 77 yards) and Jay Griffin IV (one catch, -1 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
When looking at offensive play-calling, each of these squads sports a strikingly similar (63-37) run-pass ratio on the season. The Cowboys have rushed for 184 yards per game (including 200 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 15 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Lobos are averaging 163 rushing yards per game (141 in conference) and have 17 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Cowboys ought to hold an advantage when it comes to RB effectiveness. Their running backs has generated 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Lobos have tallied 3.8 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.7 to opponents.
The Cowboys offensive scheme has logged 140 yards per game in the air overall (135 per game versus conference opposition) and has eight passing scores so far. The Lobos have put up 190 pass yards per outing (156.7 in the MWC) and have 21 total pass TDs.
Wyoming seems to possess an edge in both defensive facets. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 137 yards and throw for 211 yards per game. The New Mexico D has allowed 275.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 203.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Cowboys are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.40 to opposing QBs, while the Lobos have allowed an 8.00 ANY/A.
Offensively, Vander Waal has put up 1,269 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 51 percent of his 229 attempts with five scores through the air and four interceptions. Vander Waal’s got a 4.02 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 9.56 over the past two games.
We expect the Wyoming offense to mix it up in this one. Nico Evans (996 rushing yards, six rush TDs, one receiving touchdown this season), Sean Chambers (128 rush yards, one rush TD, 0 receiving yards) and Tyree Mayfield (320 receiving yards, two TDs) have each played big roles of late.
In the other locker room, Sheriron Jones has completed 95-of-175 passes for 1,300 yards, 13 TDs and 11 INTs. Jones’ ANY/A stands at 5.41 for the season and 3.92 over his last two outings.
We’re thinking the Lobos will control tempo by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. In addition to Delane Hart-Johnson (424 receiving yards, five receiving TDs this season), Daevon Vigilant (115 rush yards, one rush TD) and Tyrone Owens (622 rush yards, six rush TDs, one TD) have been focal points in the Lobos’ recent offensive gameplans.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The O/U for Wyoming’s previous game was 43. The over cashed in the team’s 35-27 triumph over Air Force.
Wyoming has produced 5.5 yards per carry across its last three games and 5.8 over its last two.
New Mexico has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.4 over its past two.
New Mexico has lost nine fumbles this season while Wyoming has let six get away.
In its last three matches, Wyoming is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for New Mexico’s last game was set at 61.5. The under cashed in the team’s 45-14 loss to Boise State.
Over its last three matches, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
New Mexico has lost eight of its last nine games SU, with a 36-point win over UNLV on October 6th accounting for its one victory over that span.
The Cowboys offense has tallied six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Lobos have accounted for nine such plays.
The Wyoming defense has allowed three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while New Mexico has given up 12 such plays.
The Wyoming offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New Mexico has created 11 such runs.
The Cowboys defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Lobos have given up 12 such runs.
The New Mexico defense has notched 23 sacks on the year while Wyoming has just 15.
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