A couple of schools that prefer to focus on their running games, Coach Everett Withers and the Texas State Bobcats (+13.5) are set to play host to the Arkansas State Red Wolves (-13.5) at Jim Wacker Field at Bobcat Stadium. ESPN 3 owns the TV rights and the game’s scheduled to kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Texas State Bobcats Betting Preview
Texas State is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 13.5 points in this Saturday SBC game. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently have to put down $600 in order to win $100 back on the Red Wolves (-600). The Bobcats are getting +425 moneyline odds. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 53 points, and if one squad can catch a lucky break early on, it will likely lead to a reasonable in-game betting opportunity.
The game’s total has moved downward after originally being set at 54.5. The opening line (13.5) has not budged.
The Red Wolves have gained 1.9 units so far in 2018 and are 5-6 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 3-7. The Bobcats have lost 3.5 units this season. The team is 6-4-1 ATS and owns an O/U record of 4-7.
The Red Wolves are 7-4 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against SBC opponents. The Bobcats are 3-8 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
When these two teams met last year, Arkansas State earned the win 30-12.
Texas State enters this contest on a zero-game winning streak while Arkansas State has lost each of its last zero. The Red Wolves hope to keep things rolling after a 31-17 victory over Louisiana-Monroe last week. The passing attack was sharp as Justice Hansen completed 21-of-27 passes for 246 yards and three touchdowns. Marcel Murray (94 rushing yards on 17 attempts) and Warren Wand (48 yards on 14 carries) led the ground attack while Kirk Merritt (six receptions, 89 yards, two TDs) and Wand (four catches, 30 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Back on November 17, Troy knocked off this Texas State crew by a score of 12-7. The Bobcats defensive unit let the Trojans eat up the clock by running for 141 yards on 47 rush attempts. B.J. Smith put up a solid outing in the win for Troy, accounting for 94 rushing yards on 24 attempts. For Texas State, Tyler Vitt completed nine-of-23 passes for 155 yards and five interceptions. Anthony D. Taylor (32 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and Caleb Twyford (73 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running game as Keenen Brown (three receptions, 29 yards) and Hutch White (two catches, 42 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Arkansas State has run the ball on 50.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas State has an overall rush percentage of 57.2 percent. The Red Wolves have produced 178 rush yards/game (including 172 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 16 scores on the ground this year. The Bobcats are averaging 140 rush yards per game (128 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Red Wolves might be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded just 35 sacks while their D-line logged 35 sacks. The Bobcats offensive line has allowed 36 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 21 times.
The Red Wolves offense has logged 283 yards/game in the air overall (286 per game against conference opposition) and has 26 passing scores so far. The Bobcats have put up 187 pass yards per game (196.7 in the SBC) and have 15 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Arkansas State has allowed 197 rush yards and 180 pass yards per game. The Texas State D has allowed 194.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 179.2 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Red Wolves have given up an ANY/A of 5.84 to opposing QBs, while the Bobcats are allowing an ANY/A of 5.48.
Offensively, Hansen has put up 2,643 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 65 percent of his 344 attempts with 21 scores through the air and only six interceptions. Hansen has a 7.44 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 13.60 over the past two outings.
We expect the Red Wolves to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to wideout Kirk Merritt (606 receiving yards and five touchdowns), Marcel Murray (668 rush yards, six rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Warren Wand (454 rush yards, two rush TDs, 143 receiving yards) have delivered in the Arkansas State offensive scheme.
In the home locker room, Tyler Vitt has completed 84-of-137 passes for 920 yards, six TDs and nine INTs. Vitt’s ANY/A sits at a terrible 3.70 for the year and -0.15 across his past two games.
The Bobcats will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Caleb Twyford (91 receiving yards), Keenen Brown (62 rush yards, two rush TDs, 512 receiving yards, four receiving TDs) and Anthony D. Taylor (286 rush yards, four rush TDs) have gotten a lot of looks lately.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Texas State Bobcats
SU Winner – Arkansas State, ATS Winner – Arkansas State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Arkansas State defensive unit has more than twice as many sacks as Texas State this year (28 to 13).
The Texas State offense has lost 10 fumbles in 2018 while Arkansas State has lost five.
The Red Wolves offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bobcats have put up six such plays.
The Arkansas State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Texas State has given up six such plays.
The Arkansas State offense has created 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Texas State has created 13 such runs.
The Red Wolves defense has allowed 20 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Bobcats have given up nine such runs.
The O/U for Texas State’s last match going into it was 47.5. The under cashed in the 12-7 loss to Troy.
In its last three matches, Texas State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matchups, Arkansas State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Over/Under for Arkansas State’s last game was 68.5. The under cashed in the team’s 31-17 victory over Louisiana-Monroe.
Arkansas State has rushed for 4.6 yards per attempt over its past three games and 4.9 over its last two.
Texas State has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its past two.
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