This game looks like a low-scoring affair as the Illinois Fighting Illini (4-3) play the Penn State Nittany Lions (6-2). The Big 10’s second-leading receiver, Geronimo Allison (700 yards, 3 TDs), is a player to watch in this matchup. If it can pull out a win this week, Illinois could begin to get back on track. While they have had some success this season, the Fighting Illini have struggled lately, losing their last three games. Players will take the field Saturday, Oct 31 at 12:00 p.m. ET and the game will air on ESP2.
Penn State barely got past Maryland 31-30 last week. Chris Godwin had an outstanding performance in the win, totaling four receptions for 135 yards and one TD. DaeSean Hamilton also had a big game with 96 receiving yards and a TD on five receptions. Illinois didn’t have the same success as Penn State, getting beat by Wisconsin 24-13. Geronimo Allison had a solid outing for the Fighting Illini, registering eight receptions for 99 yards. Malik Turner added 80 receiving yards on four receptions.
Penn State is a four-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable at the moment.
Despite a 6-2 Straight Up (SU) record this season, the Nittany Lions have not fared well Against The Spread (ATS) with a 3-5 record. Over their last five games, the Nittany Lions have records of 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS. The Nittany Lions are averaging 237.0 passing yards in the last five games, higher than their season average of 194.6. The Penn State pass defense has played at another level the past five games as well. It has given up 133.4 passing yards per game during that span. The Fighting Illini need to watch out for Penn State’s tenacious defense. It averages the 20th-most turnovers with 2.1 per game. Penn State’s special teams are one of its strengths. They earn 111 return yards per game, putting them 22nd in Division I.
On the other side, the Fighting Illini have a record of 4-3 for both ATS and SU. In the previous five games, Illinois has a record of 2-3 both SU and ATS. The Fighting Illini rely heavily on their air attack, averaging 43 passing attempts per game. Lately, the Fighting Illini have had a better pass defense. They’re allowing only 226.6 passing YPG over their last five matchups.
Predictions: SU Winner – Penn State, ATS Winner – Illinois
Notes
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Penn State’s last 8 games.
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State’s last 5 games at home.
Penn State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Illinois.
Penn State is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Illinois.
Penn State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Illinois.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State’s last 6 games when playing at home against Illinois.
Illinois is 3-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Penn State is 5-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
Dating back to last season, Illinois is only 4-7 SU against Big 10 opponents, while Penn State is 5-7 SU against in-conference foes.
The Penn State rushing attack is ranked only 94th in the country, while the Illinois run defense is ranked 50th. The Fighting Illini rushing game is ranked just 110th, compared to the 60th-ranked run defense of the Nittany Lions.
