The No. 25 Fresno State Bulldogs are coming into the Mountain West Championship Game as underdogs against the No. 19 Boise State Broncos. The game is scheduled to get underway at 7:45 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ESPN.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
Fresno State is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 3 points in this MWC matchup. The Bulldogs are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -140. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points. There should be some decent live betting opportunities in this game.
The opening line was -3 while the O/U hasn’t moved since it opened at 51.
The Bulldogs have gained 3.5 units this season and are 8-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-9. The Broncos are up 0.5 units so far. The team is 7-4-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-6-1.
The Bulldogs are 10-2 straight up (SU), including 7-1 SU against MWC opponents. The Broncos are 10-2 SU overall and are also 7-1 SU in conference play.
The Bulldogs hope to keep things rolling after a 31-13 victory over San Jose State last week. The passing game was sharp as Marcus McMaryion completed 20 passes for 317 yards and two touchdowns. Ronnie Rivers (92 yards on 17 rushes) and Jordan Mims (55 yards on eight carries, one TD) spearheaded the running attack in the win while KeeSean Johnson (seven receptions, 173 yards, one TD) and Jared Rice (three catches, 49 yards) shared the receiving duties.
Boise State just picked up a 33-24 win over Utah State. The defensive secondary let the Aggies air it out for 363 yards and three touchdowns. Aaren Vaughns had a productive showing in the defeat, recording 107 yards on seven catches for Utah State. For Boise State, Brett Rypien completed 23-of-32 passes for 310 yards and one touchdown. Alexander Mattison (200 yards on 37 rush attempts, three TDs) spearheaded the ground attack in the win as CT Thomas (six receptions, 89 yards) and Sean Modster (five catches, 81 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Fresno State has run the ball on 53.3 percent of its offensive possessions while Boise State has a rush percentage of 52.0. The Bulldogs have produced 149 rush yards/game (including 140 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 27 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Broncos are averaging 163 rush yards per game (162 in conference) and have 23 total rushing TDs.
The Bulldogs offensive scheme has logged 283 yards/game through the air overall (287 per game versus conference opposition) and has 25 passing TDs so far. The Broncos have produced 306 pass yards per contest (294.3 in the MWC) and have 30 total pass scores.
Defensively, Fresno State appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 122 rush yards and 200 pass yards per game. The Boise State defense has allowed 238.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.42 to opponents, while the Broncos have given up a 6.66 ANY/A.
Offensively, McMaryion has put up 3,016 passing yards on the year, and has completed 241-of-342 attempts with 23 scores through the air and only three interceptions. McMaryion’s got a pristine 9.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 11.38 over the last two outings.
Brett Rypien has managed to complete 269-of-389 passes for 3,358 yards, 26 TDs and seven INTs for Boise State. His ANY/A stands at 8.20 for the season and 8.95 over his past two outings.
RELATED: Week 14 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Boise State Broncos
SU Winner – Fresno State, ATS Winner – Fresno State, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The O/U for Fresno State’s previous game going into it was 52. The under cashed in the team’s 31-13 triumph over San Jose State.
Fresno State has averaged 4.0 yards per carry over its past three games and 4.1 over its last two.
Boise State has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.
Boise State has lost four fumbles this season while Fresno State has lost five.
Over its last three games, Fresno State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Fresno State has won 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a seven-point defeat to Boise State on November 9th accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
The O/U for Boise State’s previous game was set at 63. The under cashed in that 33-24 victory over Utah State.
Over its last three contests, Boise State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
The Bulldogs offense has tallied nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Broncos have accounted for 14 such plays.
The Fresno State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Boise State has given up 10 such plays.
The Fresno State offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Boise State has created 12 such runs.
The Bulldogs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Broncos have given up 12 such runs.
The Boise State D has sacked opposing QBs 37 times this year. Fresno State has recorded just 21 sacks.
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