The No. 21 Northwestern Wildcats are entering the Big Ten Championship Game as two-touchdown underdogs against the No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes. The matchup gets underway at 8:00 p.m. ET and FOX is in line to have the TV rights.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
The Wildcats approach this Saturday Big 10 game as a noticeable underdog and are currently getting 14 points. The Wildcats are also receiving +500 moneyline odds while the Buckeyes are -735. Should one side can get out in front early on it’ll create a worthy live betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 61 points.
Sharp bettors tend to be siding with both the Buckeyes and the over. This line initially opened at -13 and the game’s total was originally only 59.5.
Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Wildcats have gained 9.9 units while the Buckeyes are up 1.4 units.
The Wildcats are 8-4 straight up (SU), including 8-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Buckeyes are 11-1 SU overall and are also 8-1 SU in conference play.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2017.
The Wildcats just notched a 24-16 win over Illinois last week. Clayton Thorson completed 12-of-18 passes for just 110 yards and two touchdowns. Isaiah Bowser (166 yards on 18 rush attempts) provided the ground attack while Riley Lees (three receptions, 25 yards, one TD) and Kyric McGowan (one catch, nine yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Ohio State just earned a one-sided 62-39 win over Michigan. The Buckeyes defensive unit allowed the Wolverines to run for 161 yards on 40 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Nico Collins was a bright spot in the defeat for Michigan, posting 91 yards and two touchdowns on four catches. For Ohio State, Dwayne Haskins completed 20-of-31 passes for 396 yards and six touchdowns. Mike Weber (96 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and J.K. Dobbins (46 yards on 12 carries) mounted the running game while Parris Campbell (six receptions, 192 yards, two TDs) and K.J. Hill (four catches, 51 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the win.
Each of these teams sports a strikingly similar (50-50) run-pass ratio on the season. The Wildcats have run for 115 yards/game (including 120 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 22 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Buckeyes are logging 181 rushing yards per game (163 in conference) and have 21 total rush TDs.
If 2018 results are any indication, then it appears the Buckeyes ought to own an advantage when it comes to quarterback protection, as their offensive line has yielded just 16 sacks while the D-line has registered 34 sacks. The Wildcats O-line has allowed 29 sacks and their defense has forced only 17 sacks.
The Wildcats offensive scheme has averaged 237 yards through the air overall (224 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Buckeyes have produced an astonishing 363 pass yards per contest (360.1 against Big 10 competition) and have 43 total pass scores.
Northwestern has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 135 yards and pass for 238 yards per game. The Ohio State D has allowed 237.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 161.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Wildcats have given up an ANY/A of 6.03 to opposing QBs, while the Buckeyes are yielding an ANY/A of 5.99.
Offensively, Thorson is up to 2,445 passing yards this year, and has connected on 60 percent of his 395 attempts with 14 scores through the air and 12 interceptions. He has a 4.79 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.24 over the last two outings.
In the home locker room, Dwayne Haskins has managed to complete 286-of-417 passes for 3,676 yards, 39 TDs and six INTs. Haskins’ ANY/A stands at 9.62 for the season and 13.31 across his last two games.
RELATED: Week 14 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Ohio State D has tallied twice the sack total of Northwestern this season (34 to 17).
Ohio State has lost eight fumbles in 2018 while the Northwestern offense has let two get away.
The Wildcats offense has recorded five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Buckeyes have put up 12 such plays.
The Northwestern defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Ohio State has given up 11 such plays.
The Northwestern offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Ohio State has created 15 such runs.
The Wildcats defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Buckeyes have given up 21 such runs.
The Over/Under for Ohio State’s previous game was set at 51. The over cashed in that 62-39 victory over Michigan.
In its last three matches, Ohio State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three contests, Northwestern is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Northwestern has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a 10-point defeat to Notre Dame on November 3rd accounting for the only loss over that span.
The O/U for Northwestern’s last game was set at 57. The under cashed in the team’s 24-16 victory over Illinois.
Northwestern has produced 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.2 over its last two.
Ohio State has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.9 over its last two.
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