The Atlanta Falcons (6-1) battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) this week in a game that will feature the NFL’s leading rusher, Devonta Freeman (621 yards, 9 TDs), and second-leading rusher, Doug Martin (541 yards, 3 TDs). Kickoff is at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov 1 and will air on FOX.
This week’s divisional matchup between Atlanta and Tampa Bay is the first of the season for the teams. In the regular season last year, the Falcons won both of their meetings against the Buccaneers. Paul Worrilow led the Falcons defensive effort in the last meeting, recording eight tackles. Lavonte David led the defensive effort for Tampa Bay, recording 10 tackles.
The Buccaneers are a six-point underdog against the Falcons and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 48 points.
Sitting at 6-1 Straight Up (SU) and 4-3 Against The Spread (ATS), the Falcons will look to improve heading into Week 8. In their five most recent matchups, the Falcons went 4-1 SU and 2-3 ATS. They are averaging 33 points per game at home, second-best in the league. A focal point of Atlanta’s offense at home is the run game, which ranks fourth in the league with 138.7 rushing yards per home game. Recently, Atlanta’s run stoppers have wreaked havoc on their opponents. During their last five games, the Falcons gave up 78.0 rushing yards per game. The Falcons are one of the best in the league at scoring in the fourth quarter, averaging 10.4 points. Leading the league in penalties with 10.7 per game, Tampa Bay may give the Falcons some opportunities to win the game this week.
Shifting to the opposition, the Buccaneers head into Week 8 with records of 3-3 ATS and 2-4 SU. Over their last five games, the Buccaneers have a SU record of 2-3 and a 3-2 record ATS. There’s a good chance that Tampa Bay will rely on its passing attack against a defense that allows 309.7 passing yards per home game, ranking 31st in the league. The Falcons will have to stay focused in the second quarter against Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers finish off the first half with intensity, averaging 10.2 points during the second quarter.
Predictions: SU Winner – Atl, ATS Winner – Atl, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta’s last 10 games.
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games at home.
Atlanta is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Atlanta is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tampa Bay.
Atlanta is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 2-2 SU this season, when leading at the half. Atlanta is 2-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Interestingly, Tampa Bay is winless (0-2 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (2-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
According to overall NFL pass rankings, Tampa Bay is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its 23rd-ranked offensive passing game will face the 25th-ranked pass defense of Atlanta, while its fifth-ranked pass defense will look to limit the ninth-ranked aerial attack of the Falcons.
Tampa Bay has allowed 23.0 points per game on the road, which is ranked 17th in the league. Atlanta has put up 33.0 points per game at home (ranked second overall).
