The game: Miami at New England (-8)
The Dan Campbell show comes to Foxboro as the New England Patriots (6-0) vie to stay undefeated against the suddenly competent Miami Dolphins (3-3).
The History
The rivalry between the two teams go back to 1966 in the Dolphins’ inaugural season. The then Boston Patriots won that first game 20-14.
The Dolphins lead the series 52-47 and pretty much took over the rivalry in their third season, winning 41-32 and starting a four-game winning streak.
Over the last two seasons, the home team has won this game, with the closest contest being a 24-20 Miami victory at Sun Life Stadium in Dec. 2013. The Patriots won 41-13 last December at Gillette Stadium.
The longest Dolphins’ win streak is nine games from Sept. 1989 to Nov. 1993. The Patriots put two seven-game streaks together, the first starting in January, 1986 in the playoffs lasting until Nov. 1988. All, incidentally, while Hall of Fame Dolphins quarterback Dan Marino was in his prime. The second seven-game streak started in Oct. 2010 and lasted until Oct. 2013.
The last time the Dolphins beat the Patriots at Gillette Stadium was a 38-13 win in Sept. 2008. If that seems odd, it should be noted that 2008 was the year Tom Brady missed with a torn ACL and Matt Cassel started that game for the Pats. He was out-dueled by the Dolphins’ Chad Pennington and a single touchdown pass from Miami running back Ronnie Brown.
The Dolphins on offense
For the Dolphins, it’s hard to let the stats tell the tale because until two weeks ago, this was a team angling for the top pick in the draft. Since then they’ve scored 38 and 44 points on offense. Before that they topped out at 20 in a loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Before this two-game resurgence, the Dolphins had two legitimate offense weapons in running back Lamar Miller and slot receiver Jarvis Landry. Miller and Landry have remained weapons, but now quarterback Ryan Tannehill is playing up to his contract and wideout Kenny Stills has become a factor. Truthfully, I don’t know what to expect when the Dolphins line up against the Patriots tonight and neither should New England. That’s a good thing.
The Patriots on offense
Everything that the Patriots can do successfully all comes from the arm of Tom Brady and there’s no reason to pretend otherwise. Brady, cheater or no, is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history, which frankly makes the cheating extra crappy. Tight End Rob Gronkowski isn’t the secret weapon of the offense, but he’s the one that makes the whole thing go, setting up one-on-one match ups on the outside for Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. LeGarette Blount is a sound running back, but no one is coming into this game scared of what he’s going to do.
The Dolphins on defense
The Dolphins turnaround has remade its defense as well. Defensive Cameron Wake has six sacks and they’ve all come in the last two games. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh’s two sacks both came against the Texans and it was his best game of the year too. Suh is the key in this game because Brady (and no quarterback really) can stand pressure right in his face.
The Patriots on defense
The strength of the Patriots defense is in the linebacker corps of Jason Collins, Jerod Mayo, Dont’a Hightower, so screens, short passes and outside runs will always be tough calls against New England. What they are susceptible to is a strong inside run and downfield passing. Malcolm Butler is decent, but far from a shutdown corner and Bradley Fletcher is just begging to be eaten alive by a wide receiver. The key for the Patriots is getting pressure on the quarterback so their defensive backs don’t have to cover very long.
The Pick: I’d love to pick the Dolphins in this game and I can easily see how they could go into Foxboro and beat the Patriots, but until they actually do it, I have to go with the Pats. Patriots 27, Dolphins 23
