The Baylor Bears are coming into the Academy Sports+Outdoors Texas Bowl as underdogs as they prepare to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. Kickoff is fairly late for those on the East Coast (9:00 p.m. ET) and ESPN will broadcast the action.
Baylor Bears vs. Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview
The Bears come into this Thursday matchup as the dog here and are currently getting 3.5 points. The Bears are also receiving +155 moneyline odds while the Commodores are -175. Some good in-game betting scenarios should present themselves during the match, and Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points.
The line originally opened at 4.5 while the O/U was set initially at 55, so sharp bettors have been leaning toward the Bears.
The Bears have gained 1.8 units so far and are 6-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 5-6. The Commodores have gained 0.1 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 8-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 3-9.
The Bears have gone 6-6 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Commodores are also 6-6 SU.
The Bears are looking to maintain momentum following a solid 35-24 victory over Texas Tech on November 24Their defense allowed the Red Raiders to rush for 100 yards on 30 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Ja’Deion High had a productive day for the Red Raiders in that one with 89 yards and a score on five catches. Offensively, Charlie Brewer completed 22-of-30 passes for 308 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. John Lovett (125 rushing yards on 28 attempts, one TD) and Trestan Ebner (64 yards on 10 carries) led the running attack in the win while Chris Platt (six receptions, 114 yards) and Denzel Mims (five catches, 65 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties.
Vanderbilt enters this one having just earned a 38-13 win over Tennessee. The team’s defensive unit let the Volunteers run for 103 yards on 14 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Ty Chandler was a bright spot in the loss for Tennessee, recording 88 rushing yards and a score on seven attempts. For Vanderbilt, Kyle Shurmur completed 31-of-35 passes for 367 yards and three touchdowns. Khari Blasingame (70 yards on 20 rush attempts, one TD) handled the ground attack in the win as Kalija Lipscomb (eight receptions, 86 yards) and C.J. Bolar (six catches, 93 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
When looking at offensive play-calling, each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Baylor’s run the ball on 50.3 percent of its offensive possessions while Vanderbilt has a rush percentage of 52.0. The Bears have produced 160 rush yards/game and have 21 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Commodores are averaging 158 rushing yards per game and have 18 total rush TDs.
The Bears offense has logged 282 yards/game in the air overall and has 20 passing scores so far. The Commodores have produced 240 pass yards per contest and have 23 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Baylor has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 175 yards and pass for 238 yards per game. The Vanderbilt defense has given up 232.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 187.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Commodores are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.26 to opponents, while the Bears have given up a 7.16 ANY/A.
Offensively, Brewer is up to 2,472 passing yards this year, and has completed 63 percent of his 327 attempts with 17 scores through the air and seven interceptions. Brewer has a 6.63 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.78 over the last two games.
Kyle Shurmur has managed to complete 214-of-335 passes for 2,653 yards, 20 TDs and five INTs for Vanderbilt. His ANY/A stands at 7.58 for the year and 8.15 over his last two outings.
Free NCAA Betting Tip: Baylor Bears vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Vanderbilt has lost seven fumbles this season while Baylor has lost six.
The Baylor defensive unit has 23 sacks on the year while Vanderbilt has 20.
Baylor has averaged 3.7 yards per carry over its past three contests and 3.4 over its last two.
Vanderbilt has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.7 over its last two.
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