The Nevada Wolf Pack are slight underdogs as they prepare to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in the Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl. This afternoon game is scheduled to commence at 1:15 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network will broadcast the action.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Preview
In this Saturday game, Nevada is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 1 point. The Red Wolves are also receiving -115 moneyline odds while the Wolf Pack are -105. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 59.5 points. On the surface it appears that this showdown should have some in-game betting opportunities.
Since the game’s O/U was set initially at 58.5, Sharp bettors have been apparently taking the over.
The Red Wolves are 6-6 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 2.9 units so far in 2018. They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an Over-Under mark of 3-8. The Wolf Pack are down 4.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-6 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-6-1.
The Red Wolves are 8-4 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Wolf Pack are 7-5 SU.
The Red Wolves are looking to maintain momentum following a solid 33-7 win over Texas State on November 24 where Justice Hansen completed 18 passes on 24 attempts for 276 yards and two touchdowns. Marcel Murray (60 yards on 15 rushes) and Warren Wand (145 yards on 14 carries, one TD) mounted the ground attack while Kirk Merritt (six receptions, 153 yards, two TDs) and Justin McInnis (four catches, 42 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Nevada just dropped a 34-29 game to UNLV. Ty Gangi completed 27-of-45 passes for 295 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Kelton Moore (129 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and Toa Taua (30 yards on 11 carries) mounted the running game as Kaleb Fossum (seven receptions, 58 yards) and McLane Mannix (six catches, 72 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Arkansas State has run the ball on 52.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Nevada has a rush percentage of 46.3 percent. The Red Wolves have rushed for 182 yards per game and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wolf Pack are putting up 158 rush yards per game and have 23 total rushing TDs.
The Red Wolves offensive scheme has logged 282 yards per game through the air overall and has 28 passing TDs so far. The Wolf Pack have recorded 285 pass yards per game and have 24 total pass scores.
Arkansas State should have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 201 yards and throw for 176 yards per game. The Nevada defense has given up 243.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 135.2 yards per game on the ground. The Red Wolves are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.69 to opposing QBs, while the Wolf Pack have given up a 6.71 ANY/A.
Offensively, Hansen has amassed 2,926 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 66 percent of his 361 attempts with 24 passing scores and only six interceptions. He’s got a sparkling 7.91 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.36 over the last two games.
For the home team, Ty Gangi has connected on 231-of-377 passes for 2,817 yards, 22 TDs and 10 INTs. Gangi’s ANY/A stands at 7.20 for the year and 6.21 over his past two outings.
Betting Prediction: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Nevada Wolf Pack
SU Winner – Arkansas State, ATS Winner – Arkansas State, O/U – Over
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
Nevada has lost 11 fumbles this season while Arkansas State has let six get away.
The Nevada defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 32 times this season. Arkansas State has registered 31 sacks.
Arkansas State has averaged 4.8 yards per carry across its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.
Nevada has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.3 over its past two.
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