In the final week of the 2018 regular season, the New England Patriots (-13) are gearing up to play host to their AFC East rival New York Jets at Gillette Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on CBS and the opening kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET.
New York Jets at New England Patriots Betting Preview
In this Sunday AFC game, New England has been projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline gamblers would currently have to lay down $800 to win $100 back on the Pats (-800). The Jets are getting +500 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47.5 points, and should one side can find paydirt early, it would likely produce a worthy in-game betting scenario.
The game’s total has moved downward after opening at 48. The original line of -13 has yet to change.
The less-than-stellar Jets are down 7.4 units so far and 5-9-1 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 10-5. The Patriots have lost 2.0 units this season. The team is 8-7 ATS and owns an O/U record of 5-10.
The Jets have gone 4-11 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against AFC East opponents. The Patriots are 10-5 SU overall and 4-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Jets are looking to get back on track after a 44-38 defeat to Green Bay in Week 16 in which Sam Darnold completed 24-of-35 passes for 341 yards and three touchdowns. Elijah McGuire (35 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Robby Anderson (nine receptions, 140 yards, one TD) and Chris Herndon (six catches, 82 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
New England is coming off of a 24-12 win over Buffalo a week ago. The defense did its duty in the victory, limiting the Bills to just 217 passing yards and 72 yards on the ground. Zay Jones was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 67 yards and a score on five catches for Buffalo. For New England, Tom Brady completed 13-of-24 passes for 126 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Sony Michel (116 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and Rex Burkhead (39 yards on 13 carries) handled the running game while Julian Edelman (six receptions, 70 yards, one TD) and Burkhead (four catches, 40 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. New York has run the ball on 43.8 percent of its offensive possessions while New England has a rush percentage of 45.3. The Jets have produced 101 rush yards/game (including 71 per game against East opponents) and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Pats are logging 127 rush yards per game (163 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.
The Jets offense has averaged 216 yards through the air overall (229 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing scores so far. The Pats have produced 277 pass yards per game (273.0 in the AFC) and have 25 total pass TDs.
Defensively, New York has allowed opponents to run for an average of 126 yards and throw for 274 yards per game. The New England defense has given up 267.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 113.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Jets have given up an ANY/A of 6.36 to opposing QBs, while the Pats are yielding an ANY/A of 5.93.
Offensively, Darnold is up to 2,445 passing yards this year, and has connected on 57 percent of his 348 attempts with 15 scores through the air and 15 interceptions. He’s got a 5.18 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.35 over the past two outings.
We expect the New York offense to mix it up in this one. Robby Anderson (632 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns this season), Elijah McGuire (193 rush yards, two rush TDs, 140 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Chris Herndon (441 receiving yards, four TDs) have each played big roles of late.
For the home team, Tom Brady has connected on 326-of-501 passes for 3,826 yards, 24 TDs and 10 INTs. Brady’s ANY/A sits at 7.16 for the year and 4.74 over his past two games.
We’re thinking the Pats will control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with WR Julian Edelman (691 receiving yards, five receiving TDs this season), Sony Michel (822 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Rex Burkhead (147 rush yards, 95 receiving yards) have been significant focal points in the New England offense.
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Over/Under for New York’s previous game was set at 47. The over cashed in the team’s 44-38 defeat to Green Bay.
As a team, New York has averaged 2.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.7 over its last two.
New England has averaged 4.6 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.6 over its past two.
New England has lost seven fumbles this season while New York has let eight get away.
Over its last three matches, New York is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
New York has lost nine of its last 10 games SU, with a four-point victory over Buffalo on December 9th accounting for the only win over that span.
The Over/Under for New England’s last game was set at 45. The under cashed in that 24-12 win over Buffalo.
Over its last three matches, New England is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Jets offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Patriots have put up eight such plays.
The New York defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New England has given up eight such plays.
Both defenses have produced 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The New York offense has recorded 37 running plays of 10+ yards while New England has accounted for 56 such plays.
The Jets defense has allowed 22 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Patriots have given up 10 such runs.
The New York defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 38 times this year. New England has registered just 26 sacks.
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