The New Mexico State Aggies (1-7, 1-3) travel to meet the Texas State Bobcats (2-5, 1-2) this week in a clash between two struggling SBC teams. This game will feature the SBC’s second-leading rusher, Larry Rose III (1,079 yards, 10 TDs). It starts at 4:00 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov 7 and will air on ESP3.
Texas State lost big against Georgia Southern 37-13 last week. Jafus Gaines had a good game in the loss, registering two receptions for 38 yards and one TD. New Mexico State is hoping for another victory like last week’s performance, when it beat Idaho 55-48. Andrew Allen had a solid game, racking up 92 total yards. Larry Rose III also had a big game with 212 rushing yards and four TDs on 25 attempts.
The Bobcats, a 13-point favorite, will be looking to defend their home field when New Mexico State visits. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is currently unavailable.
The Bobcats enter the game with a record of 2-5 Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In the past five games, Texas State is 1-4 for both SU and ATS. The Bobcats run game will attempt to benefit from a poor rush defense. The Aggies currently rank 126th in the nation with 288 rushing yards allowed per game. The Texas State pass defense has played at another level the past five games. It has given up 224.2 passing yards per game during that span. The Bobcats make it hard on their opponents in the second quarter. Texas State averages 12.1 points during that period, one of the best in the country. Texas State’s special teams are one of its strengths. They earn 109.9 return yards per game, putting them 25th in Division I.
On the other side, the Aggies have a record of 3-5 ATS and 1-7 SU. In the previous five games, New Mexico State has a record of 1-4 SU and 3-2 ATS. The Bobcats have not found a lot of success stopping their opponents’ running games. The Aggies will look to exploit a run defense that ranks 127th in Division I with 293.4 rushing yards allowed per game. The New Mexico State pass defense has given teams fits during the past five games. During that time, opponents have gained an average of only 230.6 passing yards against this terrorizing group. The Bobcats need to secure the ball against the fumble-minded Aggies. They’re 10th in the country in fumbles recovered with one per game. The Aggies generally save their best for last, averaging 9.5 points in the fourth quarter.
Predictions: SU Winner – Texas State, ATS Winner – Texas State
Notes
Texas State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.
Texas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas State’s last 9 games.
New Mexico State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road.
New Mexico State is 0-2 SU when leading at the half this season. Texas State is 2-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
New Mexico State is 0-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and also winless (0-3 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
Texas State has induced an average of 9.8 penalties on opponents over its last five games, but New Mexico State is 2-1 SU this season when penalized at least nine times in a game.
The Texas State rushing attack is ranked 28th in the nation, while the New Mexico State run defense is only ranked 126th. The Aggies running game is ranked 42nd, compared to the 127th-ranked rush defense of the Bobcats.
