What quarterback Patrick Mahomes has already achieved in his second year in the league is stunning. But the fact is, for the Kansas City Chiefs signal-caller, there’s still a game to go, the playoffs ahead and so much more he could accomplish. Entering Week 17 of the NFL season kicks off, Mahomes sits at 48 touchdown passes, which is already tied as the fourth-highest touchdown pass total in league history.
But there’s still a game to go against the hapless Oakland Raiders. Will Mahomes eclipse 50 touchdown passes in a single season, achieving what only Peyton Manning has done?
Will Patrick Mahomes end the 2018 regular season with 50+ touchdown passes?
Yes: -400
No: +300
First off, is there any chance in the world Mahomes doesn’t hit the over? The NFL has aligned this final week’s schedule in such a way that every single meaningful game, with the exception of the New York Jets at New England Patriots, will be played at 4:25 p.m. EST. If the Patriots win, and they should (they’re -13.5 favorites), the Chiefs must win their game against the Raiders in order to keep the No. 1 seed in the AFC. If they lose and the Los Angeles Chargers win on the road at the Denver Broncos (the Chargers are -6.5 favorites), then Los Angeles will claim the AFC West and a first round bye. The Chiefs would fall to the fifth seed. The Chargers would be the No. 1 seed.
2018 Season
Patrick Mahomes – 48 pass TD
Tom Brady & Aaron Rodgers combined – 50 pass TD@Chiefs #ChiefsKingdom
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) December 26, 2018
So everything is on the table for Kansas City, they just need to get the job done and the Raiders, under the inept head coaching of Jon Gruden, seem content to just lay down and let it happen.
Here’s something to think about before you plunk down your cash. Mahomes has slowed down over the last three weeks. Without serious help from the running game, thanks to the exile of Kareem Hunt, Mahomes has “only” thrown seven touchdowns over his last three games. I know. I hope you were sitting down or near a fainting couch. Get a drink of water and come back when you’re ready.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
If you bet “Yes” here, then you’re banking on a three touchdown performance from Mahomes. But Oakland is complete garbage and the truth is, the Chiefs just may not need that much from Mahomes to take them down. Mahomes could toss two, be only the third guy to hit 50 in league history (Manning and Tom Brady) and still lose you money.
“Who are: the Kansas City Chiefs?”#JeopardySports #KCvsSEA pic.twitter.com/JGJAF06Lac
— Jeopardy! Sports (@JeopardySports) December 24, 2018
Oakland doesn’t have a bad pass defense. They’re ranked No. 14 in the league. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are the No. 31-ranked pass defense. This one could be a surprising shootout, which means that Mahomes will likely hit that 50-plus mark by halftime.
Mahomes has been a great bet all season. He’s in a two-man MVP race with New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees. There’s no reason to think for a second he won’t hit this mark with a touchdown or two to spare. The payoff isn’t great at -400, but it’s almost guaranteed money at this point for Mahomes to deliver.
Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 48 passing TDs. Drew Brees leads NFL with 13 QB wins and 115.7 passer rating. Avery time a QB has achieved 48 TDs OR a 13+ wins/115+ rating in NFL history, he has won MVP. This year voters will have to choose.
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 27, 2018
