The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks occupy the lone primetime spot of Wild Card Weekend, giving us a chance to watch 2018 rushing leader Ezekiel Elliott. It will be Elliott’s first postseason appearance since the infamous “Dez caught it” game two years ago. It will also be Elliott’s second matchup with Seattle this season, which could give us a glimpse into how he’ll fare this weekend. With that in mind, let’s try to find the right side of this Elliott prop bet.
Ezekiel Elliott Wild Card Props: Total Rushing Yards
Over/Under 89.5 yards
Elliott rushed for 1,434 yards in 15 games this season (95.6 yards per game) meaning this line projects a slightly below average game for the rushing champ. However, if we applied this line to Elliott the entire season, he would have gone over seven times and under eight times. He also went under in each of his last two games of the regular season.
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Wild Card Betting
But not everything points to the under. In the first meeting between Dallas and Seattle, Elliott rushed 16 times for 127 yards. His 7.9 yards per carry in that game tied his season-high. That was in spite of playing from behind in front of a hostile crowd. This time he’ll be at home and could have a more favorable game script.
Elliott faced the Seahawks at home once before, on Christmas Eve of 2017. He again went over, rushing 24 times for 97 yards in a 21-12 loss. He also went over in his aforementioned lone playoff appearance, when he ran 22 times for 125 yards against Green Bay.
The Seahawks rank 13th in rushing yards allowed (113.2 per game). However, a few key stats work in Elliott’s favor. First, the Seahawks also allow 4.9 yards per carry, which is tied for the third-worst in the league. Also, they tend to struggle against elite running backs. The list of backs to rush for 90 or more yards against them this season: Elliott, Melvin Gordon, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey and Damien Williams. Except for Williams, who is in one of the league’s elite offenses, all are considered to be among the very best at their position.
The Seahawks did have some success against better running backs, though. They held Gurley to 77 yards in their first meeting. Aaron Jones, Phillip Lindsay, David Johnson (twice), Dalvin Cook and Marshawn Lynch were all held below 72 yards.
One interesting wrinkle is Seattle’s rush defense tends to play better on the road. They allow 4.6 yards per carry away from Seattle and 5.3 yards per carry at home. The only two players to exceed 90 yards in a home game against the Seahawks were McCaffrey (125) and Gurley (120). The next highest was David Johnson who totaled 71 yards in Week 4.
One final thing going in Elliott’s favor is the rest he got in Week 17. With Dallas locked into the NFC’s fourth seed, their final game of the season against the Giants was meaningless to them, so Elliott was inactive. He says the extra rest has him “ready to go” for Saturday night.
We tend to agree. It’s a small sample size, but Elliott has performed well both against the Seahawks and in the playoffs. He should be the focal point of the Cowboys’ offense and they won’t have to worry about saving him at this point in the season. Take the over.
