They say defense wins championships, but odds are that won’t be the case this season. Each of the NFL’s top five scoring offenses are still alive and number one (Kansas City) faces number five (Indianapolis) this weekend. Though the Wild Card games were all fairly low-scoring, this matchup is primed to buck the trend. Let’s take a look at this prop and determine just how high-scoring it can be.
Colts vs. Chiefs: Will either team score 30 points? (O/U set at 56)
The last two meetings between the Colts and Chiefs featured at least one 30-point scorer. The most recent came in Week 8 of 2016 and before that was their memorable Wild Card shootout five years ago.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
As for this season, the Chiefs scored 30 or more points 12 times while the Colts managed to do so five times. The Chiefs scored 26 points in their lowest-scoring game of the season and average 35.3 points per game. They’re one of three teams (LA Rams, New Orleans) to average more than 30 points per game.
This will be the highest over/under of the season for the Colts. Their previous high (52.5) came in Week 10 in a home matchup with the Dolphins. The game went under in a 27-24 Dolphins win. However, the Colts had two other games with the over/under set at 50 or more and (Week 8 at Oakland and Week 10 vs. Tennessee) and scored 42 and 38, respectively.
The Chiefs had an over/under equal to or greater than this one three times. Those games were Week 6 at New England (59.5), Week 7 vs. Cincinnati (56) and Week 11 on the road against the Rams (63.5). They scored 40, 45 and 51.
Though it’s clear the Chiefs are the most likely of the two to score 30, there is one trend working against them. Three of the four games in which they failed to score 30 came at home and each of those came in the final six weeks of the season. Before their Week 17 win over Oakland, the owners of the worst scoring defense in the league, the Chiefs hadn’t broken 30 in a home game since Week 8 against Denver.
It’s true that the Chiefs had a couple of tough matchups in that stretch against Baltimore and the Chargers. But they also came up short against the Cardinals, who had the 26th-ranked scoring defense. The Colts rank 10th, allowing 21.5 points per game.
The Colts have only eclipsed 30 points once in their last seven games. Six of their last eight games went under, including last week in Houston.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle to one of the teams scoring 30 will be the weather. Though kickoff is still a few days away, the current weather forecast calls for rain and snow. It’s likely both offenses will suffer if that happens.
The bet: Yes. The Chiefs alone are likely to go over 30, with the Colts having a very good shot as well. The potential winter weather is worrisome, but other than that, most of the trends point to a very high-scoring affair.
