While NFL Wild Card weekend didn’t exactly blow fans away with the most entertaining slate of matchups, there is no doubt about the dramatics of it with three of the four games coming down to the final minutes. Will that be the case again in the Divisional Round? On paper, the matchups are absolutely outstanding. So which underdogs have the best chance to upset their opponents and win their games straight up? Here is a look at the best underdogs to bet on in the Divisional Round.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1:05 PM ET
The Patriots were the only NFL team that went 8-0 at home in the regular season. Since 2011, New England has failed to cover only once in the Divisional Round — a 35-31 win over the Baltimore Ravens. That said, the Patriots were among the most inconsistent teams in the league overall and they certainly seem vulnerable — at least on paper — heading into this matchup. Josh Gordon is gone again, Rob Gronkowski looks slow and collected just 682 receiving yards this season and Tom Brady has had his lowest output in three years.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
The Chargers dominated the Ravens in the AFC Wild Card round thanks in large part to an outstanding defensive effort in which they were consistently able to generate pressure against Lamar Jackson. Tom Brady is a veteran, Super Bowl-winning quarterback but he isn’t exactly mobile. If the Chargers defense can slow down Brady, then it will open the door for Phillip Rivers and the offense to win this game for them. The Chargers are the team with the better record and they were a league-best 7-1 on the road this year. They can do this.
Pick: Chargers +4
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Saturday, 4:35 PM ET
Patrick Mahomes certainly deserves the MVP after throwing for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in his first year as a starting quarterback. However, beating the Colts will be an even tougher challenge without running back Kareem Hunt beside him and without the benefit of a quality defense on his side. In fact, the Indianapolis defense has been one of the best in the NFL dating back to Week 7 (giving up just 14.0 points per game in their last eight contests), so it will be interesting to see if they can slow down Mahomes. On the other side of the football, Andrew Luck is the obvious Comeback Player of the Year and he should have no problem slicing up this Kansas City defense. And if the Colts can run the ball well, they’ll be in prime position. They ran for over 200 yards last week against the Houston Texans, who led the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed (3.44). What will they do against the Chiefs, who were second-worst in this category?
Pick: Colts +5
Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams
Saturday, 8:15 PM ET
Dallas is coming off a solid win over the Seattle Seahawks at home. It isn’t exactly that farfetched that they will be able to upset the Rams on the road. After all, the Rams owned the 28th-ranked run defense according to DVOA and had the worst yards-per-carry average (5.1). On the other side of the football, quarterback Jared Goff had his share of inconsistencies and he’ll be up against a tough defense in this spot. Dak Prescott looked excellent against the Seahawks and if he can perform at a high level again this week, the Cowboys have a legitimate shot to upset LA. At the very least, Dallas should be able to keep this game close and cover the spread.
Pick: Cowboys +7
