It’s not exactly been the postseason rivalry of our time. As good as Philip Rivers and Tom Brady have been, they’ve only met in the playoffs twice before Sunday’s match up at Gillette Stadium. Both of those games were more than a decade ago.
Brady and Rivers are two of the most prolific passers in NFL history. When the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots tee it off Sunday, which guy will post the highest passing total? BetDSI has a prop bet for your consideration.
Who will throw for more yards: Tom Brady or Philip Rivers?
For the 2018 season, Philip Rivers finished with a 68.3 completion percentage, 4,308 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 picks. Brady completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 4,344 yards, 29 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. It’s about as even a stat line as you’ll see in the modern NFL.
There’s no question that for the first time since their 2006 match up (which the Pats won 24-21), the Chargers have the more complete team. Los Angeles is loaded with playmakers at wide receiver and running back and they’ll have tight end Hunter Henry available after an injury in the preseason derailed his 2018 campaign.
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Meanwhile the Patriots are short-handed everywhere on offense except quarterback. Josh Gordon’s suspension robbed the team of its best downfield weapon. Julian Edelman has been excellent since returning from his suspension, but is hardly a gamebreaker. Rob Gronkowski is in the midst of a down season and may not be 100 percent healthy, though he rarely is come playoff time.
L.A.’s defense is one of the league’s best, with star pass rushers and coming off a big win where it took some real creativity and gutty playcalling to shut down the Baltimore Ravens offense. The Chargers finished the 2018 regular season ranked No.8 in points allowed and No. 9 in yards allowed. New England has used their week off to get healthier after a cakewalk final two games of the regular season against the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. The Pats don’t give up points, ranked No. 7 in points allowed, but do surrender plenty of yardage. They were No. 21 in yards allowed.
Philip Rivers telling a story about getting chewed out at halftime of the Pro Bowl by Bill Belichick.
Belichick reminded the team that they were “allowed to tackle”, then turned to the QBs:
“It would help if you guys would stop throwing it to the other team.”
— Nora Princiotti (@NoraPrinciotti) January 9, 2019
The irony is, the better teammates and defense means that Rivers doesn’t have to do as much as Brady to win games. Over the last month, Rivers has passed for more than 181 yards only once, in a 29-28 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. His three passing totals to end the season were 181, 176 and 160.
Brady, on the other hand, has to clock in with his arm in every game. Only once in the season’s final four games did he throw for less than 250 yards and that was a 24-13 win over the Bills. His final four totals were 358, 279, 126 and 250.
Anthony Lynn, asked about the "demise of Tom Brady and the Patriots dynasty."
"I don't see it."
What did anyone think he was going to say?
— Andrew Siciliano (@AndrewSiciliano) January 9, 2019
Favored or not, if the Patriots are going to win this game and go on to the AFC Championship, Brady is going to have to pile up the turf. For my money, he’s the safer bet, though Rivers will likely be the 250-range himself. It’ll take his best effort to beat New England in Foxborough.
