It has been nearly six months since NBA over/under win totals were released, and it is time for an updated regarding what the sportsbooks projected and what is actually happening.
Also, it is always nice to give out report cards, so that is what we are going to do today.
This professor once counseled troubled students that “Cs get degrees,” so he is a generous grader.
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
Toronto Raptors (32-12) — The preseason over/under was 47.5, which they should easily top. They have been a pleasure to watch, have continued winning despite injuries to starters and Kawhi Leonard sitting out the second set of several back-to-backs, and they have Nick Nurse in the Coach of the Year race. Grade: “A”
Milwaukee Bucks (29-12) — The preseason over/under was 42 1/2, and I liked the over. I had no idea coach Mike Buzenholzer would be able to turn Brook Lopez into such a prolific 3-point shooter, but he had these guys working together in New York over the summer, and they are formidable with Giannis Antetokounmpo the co-favorite for MVP. Grade: “A.”
Indiana Pacers (28-14) — The preseason over/under was 41 1/2, and they were 120-1 to win it all back in the summer. Their odds are now 60-1, which evoked a “Wow!” from non-gambler Brian Lewis of the New York Post in yesterday’s podcast. Grade: “A.”
Philadelphia 76ers, (27-16) — The preseason over/under was 56 1/2, which I said was too close to call. Losing at home to the Atlanta Hawks when Jimmy Butler choked from the free throw line was a setback, and they still need a shooter. Maybe they should have signed Jamal Crawford prior to the season when he was begging them, too. He still wants to play there. Grade: “B.”
Boston Celtics (25-16) — The preseason over/under was 57 1/2, and it does not look like they are going to get there … unless they acquire Anthony Davis. How that might happen was covered in this recent column. Grade: “B-minus.”
Miami Heat (20-20) — The preseason over/under was 43 1/2, and my pick was the over. Few teams do more with less than Pat Riley’s team, and don;t count them out at the trade deadline. When there are great players available, Pat Riley and Aldy Elisburg work Magic. Grade: “B.”
Brooklyn Nets (21-23) — The preseason over/under was 25.5, and they will blow past that by early February. What remains to be determined is whether they will pick up a high-caliber player to make them an actual playoff threat this season. They have duplication at the point guard position with D’Angelo Russell and Spencer Dinwiddie, and Russell is the more likely to be dealt. Grade: “A-minus.”
Charlotte Hornets (19-22) — The preseason over/under was 35 1/2, which is what they are on pace to get to … and make the playoffs. Kemba Walker’s 61-point outing remains the season’s high-water scoring mark, despite LaMarcus Aldridge’s best effort the other night against Oklahoma City. Grade: “B-minus.”
Detroit Pistons (17-23) — The preseason number was 35 1/2, which may he reachable is a deal can be made to bring in a superstar. I have heard anecdotal evidence that they would be willing to swap Blake Griffin for Bradley Beal. Grade: “C”
Washington Wizards (18-35) — The preseason number was 47 1/2, which is unreachable. They made a nice deal picking up Trevor Ariza, but 17 games under .500 is what it is. They have been enormously patient with Scott Brooks, and the East is weak enough for them to make a push. Is that likely? No. Grade: “D”
Orlando Magic (17-24) — The preseason number was 28 1/2, which looks to be right on the mark. I picked the under in the preseason, and if they trade Nikola Vucevic, the under could still hit. Grade: “D.”
Atlanta Hawks (13-29) — The preseason number was 26 1/2, and if they keep pulling off wins like the one they had against Philly on Friday night, they might hit the over. Don;t count on it, though. Grade: “C-minus.”
Chicago Bulls (10-32) — The preseason number was 28 1/2, and that was when they had high hopes for Jabari Parker. Let’s see what they end up getting for them, but right now the under looks like a lock. Grade: “F.”
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Denver Nuggets (28-12) — The preseason number was 43 1/2, and they should blow past that number by the end of February. Tickets aboard the Nikola Jokic bandwagon are still available. I got him at 100-1 to win MVP over the summer with a $10 wager. Grade: “A-plus.”
Golden State Warriors (28-14) — The preseason number was 68 1/2, which is an impossibility. I picked the under. They will be formidable in the playoffs, especially if DeMarcus Cousins works out as a starter, but that number was too high in a loaded Western Conference. Grade: “B-plus”
Oklahoma City Thunder (25-16) — The preseason number was 44 1/2, and the sharp money was coming in hard on the over. Now we can see why. Paul George is a legit All-NBA first-team contender, and he might ]be in the MVP debate if not for a certain teammate averaging a triple-double. Grade: “A”
Portland Trail Blazers (26-17) — The preseason number was 43 1/2, and I did not believe in them. I was wrong. They are a blast to watch, and they are going to be a tough out in the postseason. Grade: “A”
Los Angeles Clippers (24-17) — The over/under was 35 1/2, and the only prediction I made about them that was accurate was that they would be chasing Kawhi Leonard in some way, shape or form. And they are doing that, sending someone to virtually every Raptors game. Grade “A-minus”
Utah Jazz (22-21) — The preseason number was 44 1/2, and although they have been on the wrong side of .500 for a majority of the season, they are playing better of late. This one may go down to the final game of the season. Grade: “C”
Sacramento Kings (21-21) — The preseason number was 27 1/2, and they should hit the over fairly easily. They have hung onto their cap space and their expiring contracts, and Vlade Divac’s cell phone bill will be in the millions between now and Feb. 7. Grade: “A-minus.”
New Orleans Pelicans (20-22) — The preseason number was 43 1/2, and I took the under because I expected Anthony Davis to ask for a trade. I still do. And if he wants one midseason, the Lakers have a better shot than the Celtics of getting him. Grade: “C”
Dallas Mavericks (20-22) — The preseason number was 30 1/2, and the over should hit. Luka Doncic is a lock for Rookie of the Year unless he gets hurt, and the DeAndre Jordan experiment was a good one because he only signed a one-year deal. Grade: “B”
Minnesota Timberwolves (20-22) — The preseason over/under was 44 1/2, but that was before anyone knew that Jimmy Butler would force his way out of there. Unless Ryan Saunders knows the recipe for some kind of secret sauce, the over ain’t hitting. Grade: “C”
Memphis Grizzlies (19-22) — The preseason number was 27 1/2, and the over should hit. Kyle Anderson was a nice pickup, and let’s just say that Chris Wallace and Robert Sarver won’t be breaking bread together anytime soon. Grade: “B-plus.”
Phoenix Suns (10-33) — The preseason over/under was 34 1/2, and that ain’t going to happen. If Igor Kokoskov survives the season, it will be somewhat of a miracle. Grade: “D”
FROM SUMMER: PRESEASON WIN TOTAL OVER/UNDER PICKS
