The Troy Trojans meet the Georgia Southern Eagles this week in a game that will feature the SBC’s second-leading rusher, Matt Breida (1,158 yards, 13 TDs). While this hasn’t been the season it hoped to have, Troy (3-6) has shown signs of life lately, winning two of its last three. Players will take the field Saturday, Nov 14 at 3:30 p.m. ET and the game will air on ESP3.
Troy cruised past Louisiana-Monroe 51-14 last week. Brandon Silvers had a huge game through the air in the win, connecting on 22 of 33 pass attempts for 326 yards and four TDs. Brandon Burks also had a great game with 107 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Not to be outdone, Georgia Southern routed Texas State 37-13. Wesley Fields had a great game running the ball for the Eagles, rushing nine times for 158 yards and one TD. Matt Breida also had a big game with 205 rushing yards and two TDs on 23 carries.
The Trojans, a 10-point underdog, will be looking to defend their home field when Georgia Southern comes to town. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently 58 points.
While the Trojans haven’t performed well Straight Up (SU) this season (3-6), they’ve managed to play better than expectations with a 6-3 record Against The Spread (ATS) so far this year. In their five most recent matchups, the Trojans went 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS. The Trojans have seen an uptick in scoring recently, averaging 35 points during the last five games. They average 29.2 points per game on the season. The Trojans, who are averaging 270.2 yards through the air over their last five matchups, upon their season average of 233.8 passing yards. As for the Troy defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. Georgia Southern might not have much success throwing the ball against the Trojans. The Eagles average 61.5 yards per game through the air, 128th in the nation.
Over on the other sideline, the Eagles have a record of 4-3 ATS and 6-2 SU. The Eagles went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. If earlier games are any indication, the Eagles will run the ball aggressively. They average 385.6 rushing yards per game, good enough for first in Division I. Switching gears to the Georgia Southern defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. Troy’s unreliable run game could cost them a shot at victory over the Eagles. The Trojans average 128.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 115th in the nation. The Trojans need to hold on to the ball if they want a shot against the turnover-minded Eagles. The Georgia Southern defense generates 2.1 turnovers per game, 12th in the country. The Trojans defense seems to take a wrong turn out of the gate. The Eagles can take an early advantage against Troy and its average of 10.1 first-quarter points allowed. Yellow flags are typically a rare sight when the Eagles are playing. They average the 18th-fewest penalties in the nation with 4.9 per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Georgia Southern, ATS Winner – Georgia Southern, O/U – Over
Notes
Troy is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games.
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Troy’s last 19 games at home.
Ga Southern is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road.
Georgia Southern is 6-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Troy is 3-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Remarkably, Georgia Southern is only 1-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (3-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
The Georgia Southern defense has forced an average of 2.1 turnovers per game this season. Troy is an even 2-2 SU when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
