The Boise State Broncos take on the New Mexico Lobos this week in a game that will feature the MWC’s top passer, Brett Rypien (2,036 yards, 12 TDs). The Broncos are 7-2 while the Lobos are 5-4. The game starts at 10:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Nov 14 and will air on ESPU.
Boise State blew out UNLV 55-27 in their last game. Brett Rypien had a huge game passing the ball in the victory, completing 35 of 52 pass attempts for 469 yards and two TDs. Thomas Sperbeck also had a great game with 163 receiving yards on 10 receptions. New Mexico was victorious in last week’s performance as well, getting a close victory over Utah State 14-13. Delane Hart-Johnson had an outstanding performance for the Lobos, pulling in one reception for 86 yards and one TD.
Boise State is a big 29-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 57 points.
The Broncos enter the game with records of 7-2 Straight Up (SU) and 5-4 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In their five most recent matchups, the Broncos went 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. A focal point of Boise State’s offense is its passing game, which ranks 20th in the country with 301.7 passing yards per game. As for the Boise State defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. The Lobos are not likely to throw the ball very often at Boise State. They are one of the least-effective passing teams in the nation, averaging 127.4 passing yards per game. The Broncos make it hard on their opponents in the second quarter. Boise State averages 11.7 points during that period, one of the best in the country. Boise State likes to run an up-tempo, fast-paced offense. With an average of 79.8 plays per game, they rank 13th in Division I.
Across the field, the Lobos head into Week 11 with records of 4-5 ATS and 5-4 SU. The Lobos went 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS over the last five games. New Mexico’s running backs and offensive linemen look to keep their rushing attack rolling. Over the past five games, they’ve managed an impressive 214.0 rushing yards per game. Switching gears to the New Mexico defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of. The Broncos are matching up with New Mexico’s defense at an inopportune time. Over the last five games, New Mexico’s opponents have only averaged 173.2 yards through the air. The Broncos need to be careful with the football against the Lobos. Their defense ranks ninth in the country with one fumble recovered per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Boise State, ATS Winner – Boise State, O/U – Under
Notes
Boise State is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Boise State’s last 18 games.
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boise State’s last 5 games at home.
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing New Mexico.
New Mexico is 3-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Boise State is 7-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Remarkably, New Mexico is winless (0-2 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (4-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
Based on overall FBS ratings, Boise State holds the upper hand in the passing game. Its passing attack (ranked 20th in the nation) will face the 54th-ranked pass defense of New Mexico, while its 48th-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 123rd-ranked passing game of the Lobos.
