It will be a battle between Summit opponents when the Western Illinois Leathernecks (8-14, 3-6 Summit) welcome the North Dakota State Bison (10-12, 4-4 Summit) to Western Hall. The game begins at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, February 2, 2019.
Western Illinois opened as a 1-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 138.5 points.
North Dakota State Bison at Western Illinois Leathernecks ATS Prediction
The last time the Bison played, they comfortably covered the 1.5-point spread against the Oral Roberts Golden Eagles, 67-57. The game’s total points (124) were well under the projected point total of 144.5. The Bison had a solid turnover percentage of 9.8 (better than their season average of 15.4), while the Golden Eagles had a free throw rate of 0.145 (below their season average of 0.183). With 23 points on 7-for-11 shooting, Vinnie Shahid was the game’s high scorer.
The Leathernecks lost a tough one against the North Dakota Fighting Hawks in their last matchup, 74-73, despite being 9-point favorites. The game’s total points (147) finished over the O/U total of 135. North Dakota’s 26.3 offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Western Illinois, who had a mark of 19.5. The Fighting Hawks’ mark was above their season average of 23.8, while the Leathernecks’ was below the 26.6 mark opponents have averaged against North Dakota this season. With 13 points and 10 rebounds, Brandon Gilbeck put together a solid performance for Western Illinois.
Western Illinois should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Western Illinois ranks 27th in the NCAA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 16.2 percent), while North Dakota State forces the 20th-fewest turnovers (15.7 percent).
North Dakota State heads into the contest with records of 10-12 straight up (SU) and 7-13 against the spread (ATS). Bison games have a tendency to go over the total (60.0 percent).
Meanwhile, Western Illinois owns records of 8-14 SU and 8-10-1 ATS. Contrary to North Dakota State, games featuring the Leathernecks have a tendency to go under the projected point total (63.2 percent).
This will be the second game of the season between these two squads. Tyson Ward scored a game-high 17 points in the first matchup, in which the Bison beat the Leathernecks 85-69, covering as 7-point favorites. He also had 13 rebounds. The game finished with a total of 154 points, which was 12 points above the projected point total of 142 points. The Bison had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (25.8 vs. 16.7) and had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.605 vs. 0.447).
North Dakota State Bison vs. Western Illinois Leathernecks Betting Pick
Basketball Tip: SU Winner – North Dakota State, ATS Winner – North Dakota State, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, North Dakota State is 3-10 ATS with 8 overs and 5 unders.
Western Illinois is 4-3 ATS at home with 5 unders and 2 overs.
North Dakota State ranks 69th in rebounds allowed per game (33.2) while Western Illinois ranks 233rd (37.5).
The Leathernecks rank 36th in blocks per game (4.5) while the Bison rank 178th (2.2).
North Dakota State averages 26.0 three pointers per game, which ranks 51st in the NCAA. Western Illinois ranks 129th in three pointers allowed per game (22.4).
The Bison rank 210th in assists per game (12.0) while the Leathernecks rank 250th (10.7).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five outings, North Dakota State is 2-3 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Western Illinois is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Bison’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.0, up from 0.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Leathernecks have scored an average of 59.2 points per game (9.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 54.2 points per game (14.5 below their season average).
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