This season didn’t start off great for the North Carolina Tar Heels. North Carolina lost three non-conference games, and many questioned whether this team could compete with the best. UNC was having some major defensive lapses, especially on the inside, but they have since turned it on. Cameron Johnson has been one of the reasons behind that. Johnson has helped Carolina become one of the best offenses in the country, and the Tar Heels are pushing the pace with him leading the charge. He is the team’s leading scorer heading into Saturday’s tilt with Miami, and BetDSI has asked whether he will top 16 points against the Hurricanes.
Will Cameron Johnson score more than 15.5 points against Miami?
Yes -115
No -115
Johnson came to Chapel Hill as a graduate transfer from Pittsburgh last season, and he is one of the most experienced players in the country. This is his fifth season in college basketball and Johnson has averaged 28 minutes or more in each of his last three seasons. He averaged 11.9 points two years ago and 12.4 points last year, but this year he has upped his production and is leading UNC with 16 points.
For Johnson to get over his total, he will need to connect from three. Half of his field goal attempts have come from beyond the three-point line, and he has been devastatingly effective. Johnson is sinking 48.3 percent of his threes, leading the team in that statistic by a wide margin, and he is taking five attempts from beyond the arc per game.
The Hurricanes don’t have a great defense, so this is something he can exploit. According to Ken Pomeroy, Miami’s defense is rated just inside the top 100. It’s important to note that the interior defense seems to be much worse than the perimeter defense though, so that could hurt Johnson’s chances as Roy Williams might want to use bigs like Luke Maye and Nassir Little.
In recent weeks, Johnson has been on fire too. He has shot better than 55 percent from the floor in four of his last five games, and he finished with at least 17 points in each of those games. Johnson has been lights out from three, sinking 50 percent of his threes in those tilts, so that looks good for the over.
UNC’s prior meeting with Miami is a good sign that the over is the right play too. The Tar Heels played the Hurricanes in Coral Gables on January 19, and they left with a 85-76 win. In that game, Johnson played 35 minutes and was the team’s leading scorer with 22 points.
That’s why I’ll take my chances with the over. This game being in North Carolina should only help Johnson, and he will get his fair share of chances against Miami. He has been very efficient, so I trust he will sink enough to get to 16.
