If you have the urge to completely write off the New York Jets after last night’s home loss to the Buffalo Bills, you’re not alone. We all, as a society, should ignore them harder than your uncle talking about the government’s secret chemtrail experiments at Thanksgiving.
To let Rex Ryan and that Bills team walk into the Meadowlands and sham them like that is inexcusable. Brandon Marshall will have four whole days to come up with an excuse by the time the Inside the NFL cameras roll, but there’s no way an inappropriately loving shoulder touch from Boomer Esiason is going to fix this one. The Jets are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, but so are a lot of teams. Realistically? They need to let Bryce Petty play, lose some games and raise their draft position for next year.
Last week was rough on everybody picking games all across the pundit-sphere and as usual and I’d feel better about this week if I hadn’t already picked up a loss. Spoiler alert: There will be only one undefeated team after this week and it’s not who you think.
As usual, I’ll note survivor pool picks as I go.
Byes: Falcons, Colts, Chargers and 49ers
Early Games
Detroit at Green Bay (-11)
Aaron Rodgers has lost two games in a row, which I would have though impossible if I hadn’t witnessed it with my own eyes. He won’t lose three. Packers 44, Lions 19 (survivor pool pick)
Dallas at Tampa Bay (-1)
As much as the loss of Tony Romo has been the story of this Cowboys team this season what no one has mentioned much is that their defense has blown second-half leads in five of their six losses. My God, I’m picking Jameis Winston, aren’t I? Bucs 23, Cowboys 20
Carolina at Tennessee (+5.5)
Oh man, I see a trap here. Am I doing this? Am I really doing this? Yes. Dammit I am. Titans 31, Panthers 30
Chicago at St. Louis (-7)
To understand how exciting it is to have Wes Welker on this Rams team is to understand that converting third downs has a lot to do with winning football games. The Rams have been the worst in the NFL all season. Rams 30, Bears 17
New Orleans at Washington (+1)
Looking at some of the picks I’ve already made, I’ve either tapped into some ethereal Nostradomus-level mindscape dimension or I’ve got a brain tumor. I’m guessing it’s probably a tumor, but I’m rolling with it. Redskins 24, Saints 20
Miami at Philadelphia (-5.5)
Dan Campbell, you’ve toyed with my emotions for the last time. Sam Bradford, just when I’m out you pull me back in. Eagles 31, Dolphins 21
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-4.5)
Mike Pettine still hasn’t ruled out Josh McCown as his starting quarterback this week and Ben Roethlisberger is listed as questionable. Neither of those facts have any effect on my pick. Steelers 27, Browns 13
Jacksonville at Baltimore (-5.5)
Here’s a fun fact. I picked the Ravens to be the AFC Super Bowl representative in the preseason. I get paid for this. Ravens 20, Jags 14
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Late Games
Minnesota at Oakland (-3)
The Raiders return home in time to face a pretty good Vikings defense. Teddy Bridgewater might not play, but Derek Carr and Amari Cooper definitely will and that’s enough informaiton for me. Raiders 33, Vikings 23
New England at New York Giants (+7.5)
And here we have the game of the week. All our hopes rest on Eli Manning and the return of Jason Pierre-Paul and that hammer claw he now wields on his right arm. Get this done for us, Giants. Do it for justice and for America. Giants 31, Patriots 30
Kansas City at Denver (-5.5)
The Broncos took their first loss last week. Sorry Chiefs. Broncos 41, Chiefs 16 (survivor pool pick)
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Sunday Night
Arizona at Seattle (-3)
It’s the second best game of the week on paper, but might not turn out that way if the Seahawks have done anything to make their offensive line better over their bye week. The Cardinals are at their best against bad teams and can’t seem to play with the big boys. I see no reason to believe that’s changed at all. Seahawks 23, Cardinals 20
Monday Night
Houston at Cincinnati (-10.5)
That line is huge and if the Bengals were playing anyone other than the Texans, it might scare me more. I’m not sure how hot the seat is on Bill O’Brien but here’s what I do know; the Texans needs to draft a real quarterback. Wins this season aren’t going to help in that endeavor at all. Bengals 38, Texans 20 (survivor pool pick)
This Week
Straight up: 0-1
Against the Spread: 0-1
Last Week
Straight up: 6-7
Against the spread: 4-9
Survivor pool picks: 2-2
Overall
Straight up: 77-54
Against the spread: 68-63
Survivor pool picks: 30-11
