For people already sad that the NFL has wrapped up for the year with one of the worst Super Bowls in recent history, there was a reprieve. The Alliance of American Football kicked off last week and it did pretty well. Not only were ratings good, but there were some decent games and a solid social media buzz surrounding the action. Does this mean the AAF has some staying power?
BetDSI has a prop bet just for that question, though it will take a while to collect either way. Here, take a look.
AAF total years of existence (beginning in 2019)
Over 4.5 years (-140)
Under 4.5 years (+110)
There are plenty of reasons to like the AAF’s chances here. First off, they’ve got a solid TV deal in place with CBS Sports and the NFL Network. Unlike other minor football leagues in the past (and make no mistake, that’s what this is), the AAF has not set itself up as opposition with the NFL. It’s content to be a spring time game and feeder system to its much bigger and more powerful brother. The NFL has obviously bought into this as well.
The NFL has really been desperate for a minor league system since NFL Europe (previously the World League of American Football) shut down in 2007. What NFL Europe was able to do in its time is produce NFL quarterbacks, most notably Hall of Famer Kurt Warner who played for the Amsterdam Admirals. Warner’s backup, Jake Delhomme, ended up starting in a Super Bowl for the Carolina Panthers. London Monarch’s quarterback Brad Johnson won a Super Bowl with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It wasn’t just those guys. Jon Kitna, Jim Miller, Scott Mitchell and Kelly Holcombe all started NFL playoff games after stints in NFL Europe. Jay Fiedler and Damon Huard both started games in the NFL after time in the NFLE. With 32 NFL teams needing starting quarterbacks and there not, at present, being 32 starting-caliber quarterbacks on the face of the planet, you can see why the NFL is ready to toss a much-needed assist to this start up league that has absolutely nothing to do with Vince McMahon.
That means that, say, if the AAF needed a little financial boost, I’d bet the NFL would step in and do that. But as of right now, that doesn’t seem to be a problem. The AAF’s opening weekend games got better ratings than the national NBA game.
Sources: In its debut night last night, @theaaf beat the NBA on ABC in head-to-head overnight ratings:
AAF Games (2 games, 1 per market): 2.1
Houston-OKC game: 2.0
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) February 10, 2019
If anything, the NBA needs to look at that and be worried. If I’m betting here, I’d say the over is the way to go. NFL Europe made it 12 years. Sure, the XFL only lasted for one and the USFL made it four, but the latter was openly hostile to the NFL, wooed away players and draft picks and actually ended up suing the league in court. The XFL, of course, was a debacle led by McMahon. The AAF seems to have the NFL’s blessing and that’s going to count in the long run. If another Warner or Johnson emerge out of there, even better.
What could derail it? Scandal. Which, of course, is another prop.
Will any AAF player or team be investigated for match-fixing, wager-fixing or prop fixing in 2019?
Yes (+600)
No (-1000)
I say no here. The players in this league have two goals; to keep playing professional football or make it to (or back to) the NFL. Nobody is going to mess it up with any kind of BlackSox dealings.
