The NFL’s third-leading rusher, Devonta Freeman (721 yards, 9 TDs), and second-leading receiver, Julio Jones (1,029 yards, 6 TDs), will be on display when the Atlanta Falcons (6-3) meet the Indianapolis Colts (4-5). While Atlanta had its share of success this season, the team has struggled lately, losing three of its last five. The game will begin Sunday, Nov 22 at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS.
Atlanta lost a game they could have won against the 49ers 17-16 in its last game. Julio Jones had a big game in the loss, registering 10 catches for 137 yards. Indianapolis is hoping for a similar result as its last game when they won a close one against the Broncos 27-24. Andrew Luck had an outstanding performance throwing the ball for the Colts, completing 21 of 36 passes for 252 yards and two TDs. Frank Gore also had a big game with 83 yards and a TD on 28 attempts.
The Falcons, a four-point favorite, will be looking to defend their home field when Indianapolis visits. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is 46 points.
Heading into Week 11 of league action, the Falcons are 6-3 Straight Up (SU) and 4-5 Against The Spread (ATS). The Falcons are 2-3 SU over their last five matchups, but they’re worse ATS with a 0-5 record. They rank fourth in the league with 29.8 points per game at home. Atlanta sets the tone offensively with its passing attack, which averages a league-best 288.3 yards per game. Turning to the Falcons defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. The Colts may have a difficult time running against the Falcons’ third-ranked run defense who have given up 88.9 rushing yards per game. The Falcons defense should be ready for Indianapolis, who rank 29th in the league with 2.1 turnovers committed per game. The Falcons make it hard on their opponents in the second quarter. In home games, Atlanta averages 10.2 points during those periods, one of the highest marks in the league. Atlanta is likely to control the clock this week. They have an average time of possession of 34:56 per game, the highest in the NFL.
As for their opponent, the Colts have 4-5 SU and ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Indianapolis has a record of 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS. As of late, the Colts have found success on offense. During the last five games, they averaged 25 PPG, above their 22.2 PPG season average. Shifting to the other side of the ball, the Indianapolis defense can dominate if it takes advantage of some favorable matchups. When playing on the road, the Colts are one of the best in the league at preventing their opponents’ rushing game, allowing their opposition 3.6 yards per rush. The Colts need to capitalize on takeaway opportunities against the turnover-inclined Falcons, who rank 27th in turnovers with 2.2 per home game. The Colts know how to handle late-game pressure on the road, averaging 13.5 points in the final quarter of road games. Given Atlanta’s tendencies, this game could come down to penalties. The Falcons have been one of the most penalized teams in the NFL this year, with 68 penalty yards per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Atl, ATS Winner – Atl, O/U – Under
Notes
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games.
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games at home.
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis.
Indianapolis is 3-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Atlanta is 2-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Indianapolis is only 1-4) SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 2-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
Indianapolis has drawn an average of 9.4 penalties on opponents over its last five games. Atlanta is only 1-2 SU this season when penalized at least nine times in a game.
Atlanta is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 15th-ranked rushing attack will face the 22nd-ranked run defense of Indianapolis, while its third-ranked run defense will look to contain the 21st-ranked rushing game of the Colts.
Atlanta has allowed 21.8 points per game at home this year, which ranks it 16th in the league. Indianapolis has scored 25.5 points per game on the road (ranked eighth overall).
