The Atlanta Falcons (6-3) battle the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) this week in a game that will feature the NFL’s third-leading rusher, Devonta Freeman (721 yards, 9 TDs), and second-leading receiver, Julio Jones (1,029 yards, 6 TDs). Atlanta (6-3) has had its share of highlights this season, but has struggled in recent weeks, having lost three of its last five. The game will air Sunday, Nov 22 at 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
In its last game, Atlanta lost in a close one against the 49ers 17-16. Julio Jones had a great game in the loss, grabbing 10 receptions for 137 yards. Indianapolis is looking to repeat its game before the bye when it won a tight one against the Broncos 27-24. Andrew Luck had a huge game through the air for the Colts, connecting on 21 of 36 pass attempts for 252 yards and two TDs. Frank Gore also had a great game with 83 yards and a TD on 28 carries.
The Colts are a four-point underdog against the Falcons and the Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 46 points.
Sitting at 6-3 Straight Up (SU) and 4-5 Against The Spread (ATS), the Falcons will look to improve heading into Week 11. The Falcons are 2-3 SU in their last five games, but a less-than-stellar 0-5 ATS. They are averaging 29.8 points per game at home, fourth-best in the league. A focal point of Atlanta’s offense is its passing game, which ranks fifth in the league with 288.3 passing yards per game. As for the Atlanta defense, a few key matchups could decide this game. Expect the Colts to have a tough time running against the third-ranked Falcons run defense, which gives up 88.9 yards per game on the ground. An important aspect of the game will be if the Falcons can benefit from Indianapolis’s propensity to commit turnovers. They currently rank 29th in the league with 2.1 turnovers per game. In the second quarter, Atlanta relies on a sturdy offense, putting up 10.2 points during home games. Atlanta is one of the leaders in time of possession. They hold on to the ball an average of 34:56 per game.
Shifting to the opposition, the Colts head into Week 11 with records of 4-5 for both ATS and SU. Over their last five games, the Colts have a SU record of 2-3 and a 4-1 record ATS. Indianapolis has made opposing defenses suffer as of late, averaging 25 points per game over the last five games. This improved stretch brought its season average to 22.2 PPG. Moving on to the Indianapolis defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Falcons. Indianapolis, allowing 3.6 yards per rush during away games, has a good chance of shutting down its competitor’s rushing offense. To win, the Colts need to make the Falcons turn the ball over. The Falcons rank 27th in the league in turnovers with 2.2 per home game. Atlanta needs to sustain intensity through the fourth quarter against the Colts, who average 13.5 points in the final 15 minutes of regulation during road games. Few teams have been worse than Atlanta at losing yardage through infractions. The Falcons have accumulated 68 penalty yards per game this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Atl, ATS Winner – Atl, O/U – Under
Notes
Atlanta is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta’s last 5 games.
Atlanta is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 6 games at home.
Atlanta is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis.
Indianapolis is 3-1 SU this season, when leading at the half. Atlanta is 2-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Indianapolis is only 1-4) SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 2-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
Indianapolis has induced an average of 9.4 penalties on opponents over its last five games. Atlanta is only 1-2 SU this season when penalized at least nine times in a game.
Atlanta is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 15th-ranked rushing attack will face the 22nd-ranked run defense of Indianapolis, while its third-ranked run defense will look to contain the 21st-ranked rushing game of the Colts.
Atlanta has given up 21.8 points per contest at home this year, which ranks it 16th in the league. Indianapolis has scored 25.5 points per game on the road (ranked eighth overall).
