The undefeated New England Patriots (9-0) play the Buffalo Bills (5-4) this week. A player to watch is the NFL’s top passer, Tom Brady (3,043 yards, 24 TDs). It will begin Monday, Nov 23 at 8:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
New England beat Buffalo 40-32 in a Week 2 meeting between these two teams. Julian Edelman had a big performance in that game, totaling 11 catches for 97 yards and two TDs. Rob Gronkowski had a big day as well, contributing 113 yards and a TD on seven receptions. Tyrod Taylor had a solid performance passing the ball for Buffalo, completing 23 of 30 passes for 242 yards, three TDs and three interceptions. LeSean McCoy added 89 yards on 15 attempts.
New England is a considerable seven-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 49 points.
The Patriots enter the game with records of 9-0 Straight Up (SU) and 5-2-2 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. New England sets the tone offensively with its passing attack, which averages a league-best 325.9 yards per game. Turning to the Patriots defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. The Bills will be matching up against a skilled New England run defense, which allowed 68.2 rushing yards over its last five matchups. One of the keys to the game will be if the Bills can protect the quarterback against New England’s aggressive pass rush. The defense ranks second in the league in sacks with 3.3 per game. The Patriots score at a high rate in the second quarter. New England averages 9.4 points during that period, one of the highest marks in the league. Buffalo will want to avoid costly mistakes against the Patriots. The Bills lead the league in penalties with 10 per game.
Moving to the road team, the Bills have a record of 5-4 for both ATS and SU. The Bills went 3-2 for both SU and ATS over the last five games. The Patriots may be catching the Bills at the wrong time. They have found their rhythm in the running game, averaging 153.6 rushing yards during the past five games. Switching gears to the Buffalo defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. Stopping the run doesn’t have to be Buffalo’s first priority. New England ranks 27th in the league with an average of 92.8 rushing yards per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – NE, ATS Winner – NE, O/U – Over
Notes
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England’s last 6 games at home.
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
New England is 16-5-2 ATS in its last 23 games at home.
New England is 22-2 SU in its last 24 games when playing Buffalo.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England’s last 9 games when playing Buffalo.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England’s last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
New England is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
Buffalo is 4-0 SU this season, when leading at the half. New England is 7-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Interestingly, Buffalo is winless (0-4 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (4-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
According to overall NFL pass rankings, New England is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its second-ranked offensive passing game will face the 18th-ranked pass defense of Buffalo, while its 22nd-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 29th-ranked aerial attack of the Bills.
Buffalo has only allowed 19.5 points per contest on the road, which ranks it seventh in the league. New England, however, has scored 34.4 points per game at home (ranked first overall).
