The NFL’s second-leading rusher, Doug Martin (941 yards, 3 TDs), will be on display when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) play the Indianapolis Colts (5-5). The game starts at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov 29 and can be seen on FOX.
Indianapolis won a close one against the Falcons 24-21 last week. D’Qwell Jackson led the Indianapolis defense in the win, totaling six tackles, one sack, and one interception. Tampa Bay managed to get the win as well, blowing out the Eagles 45-17. Doug Martin had a big game on the ground for the Buccaneers, rushing for 235 yards on 27 carries. Jameis Winston had a big game as well, totaling 246 yards and five TDs through the air.
Indianapolis is favored by a slight two-point margin in its matchup against the Buccaneers. The matchup currently has a 47-point Over/Under (O/U).
The Colts enter the game with a current record of 5-5 Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In the past five games, Indianapolis is 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS. The game plan for the Colts is committed to passing. The Buccaneers currently rank 27th in the NFL with 278.6 passing yards allowed per road game. Transitioning to the Indianapolis defense, there are some things to consider when it is on the field. The Indianapolis defense may be able to capitalize on the Buccaneers’ poor passing game, which averages a 58.3% completion percentage. One of the keys to the game will be how the Buccaneers plan to deal with Indianapolis’s ball hawks. The defense ranks fourth in the league in interceptions with 1.3 per game. Tampa Bay will want to avoid a close contest. The Colts are the top-scoring team during the final quarter, averaging 10 fourth-quarter points. Mistakes and a lack of focus could be factors that benefit the Colts in this game. The Buccaneers lead the league in penalties with 9.7 per game.
Moving to the road team, the Buccaneers have a record of 6-4 ATS and 5-5 SU. In the previous five games, Tampa Bay has a record of 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS as well. Based on earlier games, the Buccaneers’ offense will look to control the clock with a stellar run game. They average 141.9 rushing yards per game, good enough for second in the NFL. The Buccaneers look to exploit Indianapolis’s subpar offense, which averages 19.6 points per home game. The Tampa Bay run defense has given teams issues during the past five games. During that time, opponents have gained an average of 88.6 rushing yards against this intimidating unit. The Colts will have to avoid mistakes against the turnover-minded Buccaneers. The Tampa Bay defense generates two turnovers per game, fourth in the league. The Buccaneers perform well in the second quarter, when they average 9.8 points this year.
Predictions: SU Winner – TB, ATS Winner – TB, O/U – Under
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Indianapolis’s last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 7 games at home.
Indianapolis is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home.
Indianapolis is 12-5-1 ATS in its last 18 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis’s last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay.
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU when leading at the half this season. Indianapolis is 3-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Remarkably, Tampa Bay is only 1-3 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (4-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
Indianapolis has drawn an average of 8.0 penalties on opponents over its last five games. Tampa Bay is only 1-2 SU this season when penalized eight or more times in a game.
Tampa Bay is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its second-ranked rushing attack will face the 21st-ranked run defense of Indianapolis, while its 15th-ranked rush defense will look to contain the 20th-ranked run game of the Colts.
