The New England Patriots (10-0) travel to meet the Denver Broncos (8-2) this week in a clash between two of the league’s best. The NFL’s fifth-leading receiver, Demaryius Thomas (875 yards, 2 TDs), and top passer, Tom Brady (3,320 yards, 25 TDs), will be on display in this contest. Though Denver had their fair share of success this season, the team has struggled lately, losing one of its last three. The game will begin Sunday, Nov 29 at 8:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on NBC.
Denver prevailed in a close one over the Bears 17-15 last week. Danny Trevathan led the way for the Denver defense in the win, totaling seven tackles and one interception. Ronnie Hillman also had a big day, contributing 102 yards on 21 attempts. New England managed to get the win as well, beating the Bills 20-13. Danny Amendola had an outstanding performance for the Patriots, registering nine catches for 117 yards.
New England is a four-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 46 points.
Heading into Week 12 of league action, the Broncos are 8-2 Straight Up (SU) and 5-4-1 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Broncos have records of 3-2 SU and 1-3-1 ATS. The Broncos are averaging 117.2 rushing yards over their last five games, higher than their season average of 94.4. As for the Denver defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. Denver’s defense will look to improve its stats against the run when the Patriots come to town. New England’s 92 rushing yards per game ranks 28th in the NFL. One of the keys to the game will be if the Patriots can protect the quarterback against Denver’s aggressive pass rush. The defense leads the league in sacks with 3.3 per game. Mistakes and lack of focus may be factors that benefit the Broncos in the game. The Patriots are one of the league’s most penalized teams on the road with 87.2 penalty yards per game.
Moving to the road team, the Patriots have 10-0 SU and 5-2-3 ATS records this season. The Broncos may be catching the Patriots at the wrong time. They have found their stride on offense in the past five games, averaging 402.4 total yards during that span. Switching gears to the New England defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Broncos. The New England defense has allowed 88.6 rush yards per game this season, second in the league. Pass protection will be essential for the Broncos against the tenacious Patriots defense, ranking second in the league in sacks with 3.2 per game. The Patriots get a boost in the second quarter of away games, where they average nine points this year.
Predictions: SU Winner – NE, ATS Winner – NE, O/U – Under
Notes
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Denver is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games.
Denver is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home.
Denver is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England.
Denver is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 6 games when playing New England.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver’s last 10 games when playing at home against New England.
Denver is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against New England.
New England is 8-0 SU this season, when leading at the half. Denver is 6-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Denver is an even 2-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (5-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
The Denver passing attack is ranked 17th in the league, compared to the 21st-ranked pass defense of New England.
Denver has only allowed 18.0 points per game at home this year, which ranks it seventh in the league. New England, however, has scored 32.8 points per contest on the road (ranked second overall).
