This game has the makings of a high-scoring affair as the North Carolina Tar Heels get together with the Baylor Bears with a chance to finish the season with a Russell Athletic Bowl win. North Carolina (11-2) enters this game having been victorious in four of its last five, while Baylor (9-3) has fallen in three of its last five. Players will take the field Tuesday, Dec 29 at 5:30 p.m. ET and the game will air on ESPN.
In its last game, Baylor lost to Texas 23-17. Lynx Hawthorne had a solid outing, racking up 66 total yards and a score. He did the most damage running the ball, registering 66 yards and a TD. In its last game, North Carolina lost to Clemson 45-37. Marquise Williams had a big game passing the ball for the Tar Heels, connecting on 11 of 33 passes for 224 yards, three TDs and one interception. He added 81 yards and a TD on 17 rush attempts. Quinshad Davis finished with 73 receiving yards on three receptions.
As a narrow three-point underdog, the Tar Heels look to upend the Bears. The Over/Under (O/U) is sitting at 69 points.
Sitting at 9-3 Straight Up (SU) and 5-7 Against The Spread (ATS), the Bears will look to improve heading into this bowl game. Over their last five games, the Bears have records of 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. The Bears have America’s fourth-ranked running attack with 300.2 yards per game. During their last five games, the Bears gave up 234.8 passing yards per game. The Tar Heels will need to stop Baylor’s defense from stripping the ball. It ranks 16th in the nation in fumbles recovered with 0.9 per game. Keep an eye on Baylor to turn it up a notch during the third quarter, when they average 11.3 points per game. Baylor’s offense moves at a torrid pace. They rank second in Division I with an average of 83.4 offensive snaps per game.
On the other side, the Tar Heels have a record of 8-5 ATS and 11-2 SU. In the previous five games, North Carolina has a record of 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS. North Carolina has made opposing defenses pay lately, averaging 47 points per game over the last five games. This improved stretch brought its season average to 40.9 PPG. Chances are North Carolina will continue to rely on its run game, where its 223.2 rushing yards per game ranks 22nd in the nation. Moving on to the North Carolina defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Bears. The Bears have got to hold on to the ball against the Tar Heels. The Bears are 110th in the country in turnovers with 2.1 per game. The Tar Heels usually get going immediately from the initial kickoff, averaging 10.4 points in the first quarter this year. Prepare to see a lot of yellow flags flying around when the Bears are playing. They are one of the most penalized teams in the nation with 8.9 calls per game.
Russell Athletic Bowl Predictions: SU Winner – North Carolina, ATS Winner – North Carolina, O/U – Over
Notes
Baylor is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
Baylor is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games.
North Carolina is 9-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Baylor is 9-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
North Carolina is an even 2-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (6-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
The Baylor defense has forced an average of 2.0 turnovers per game this season, but North Carolina is 4-2 SU when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
