This game looks like a potential shootout as the Oklahoma State Cowboys battle it out with the Ole Miss Rebels for a chance to close out the season with a Sugar Bowl victory. Ole Miss (9-3) goes into this game having picked up the win in four of its last five, while Oklahoma State (10-2) has lost two of its last three. The game will begin Friday, Jan 1 at 8:30 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN.
Ole Miss beat Mississippi State 38-27 in its last game. Damore’ea Stringfellow had a huge game in the win, catching five receptions for 84 yards and two TDs. Jordan Wilkins put up 54 rushing yards and a TD on five attempts. Oklahoma State didn’t have the same success as Ole Miss, struggling mightily against Oklahoma 58-23. James Washington had a big game for the Cowboys, pulling in seven passes for 169 yards and one TD. J.W. Walsh had a big game as well, totaling 325 yards and two TDs through the air.
Ole Miss is a seven-point favorite against the Cowboys. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 68 points.
The Rebels enter the game with records of 9-3 Straight Up (SU) and 7-4-1 Against The Spread (ATS) this season. In their five most recent matchups, the Rebels went 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS. A focal point of Ole Miss’s offense is its passing game, which ranks 10th in the country with 333.7 passing yards per game. Turning to the Rebels defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. Oklahoma State’s offense will need to use all of its options against the 25th-ranked Rebels run defense, which gives up 132.4 rushing yards per game. It is critical for the Cowboys to prepare for Ole Miss’s big-play defense. The Rebels rank 18th in the nation with 1.2 interceptions per game. In the first quarter, Ole Miss is tough to stop, putting up 11.4 points in the first 15 minutes.
As for their opponent, the Cowboys have 10-2 SU and 6-6 ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Oklahoma State has a record of 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS. If earlier games are any indication, the Cowboys will throw the ball a lot. They average 357.3 passing yards per game, good enough for seventh in Division I. Moving on to the Oklahoma State defense, it has some favorable matchups that it may be able to take advantage of as well. If the Rebels don’t do a good job holding on to the ball, they’ll have a hard time against the Cowboys defense, which ranks eighth in the country in turnovers with 2.2 per game. Ole Miss needs to keep its intensity through the fourth quarter against the Cowboys, who average 11.5 points in the final 15 minutes of regulation.
Predictions: SU Winner – Ole Miss, ATS Winner – Oklahoma State, O/U – Over
Notes
Mississippi is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Mississippi’s last 9 games.
Oklahoma State is 7-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Ole Miss is 9-0 SU when leading at the end of the third quarter.
Ole Miss is 4-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (4-0 SU) in games where it loses the turnover battle.
The Oklahoma State defense has forced an average of 2.2 turnovers per game this season, but Ole Miss is 3-1 SU when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
According to overall FBS team rankings, Ole Miss is rated higher in the ground game on both sides of the ball. Its 56th-ranked rushing attack will face the 83rd-ranked run defense of Oklahoma State, while its 25th-ranked run defense will look to contain the 110th-ranked rushing game of the Cowboys.
