This game looks like a potential shootout as the California Golden Bears get together with the Air Force Falcons with a chance to finish the season with an Armed Forces Bowl win. Air Force (8-5) has been defeated in two of its last three and California (7-5) three of its last five. Players will take the field Tuesday, Dec 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET and the game will air on ESPN.
Air Force lost a game they could have won against San Diego State 27-24 in the MWC Championship game. Garrett Griffin had a good game in the loss, registering four receptions for 35 yards. California is hoping for another victory like its game before the bye, when it won a tight one against Arizona State 48-46. Jared Goff had a great game through the air for the Golden Bears, completing 30 of 51 passes for 542 yards and five TDs. Bryce Treggs also had a great game with 147 receiving yards and a TD on five catches.
California is a seven-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 63 points.
Heading into this bowl game, the Falcons are 8-5 Straight Up (SU) and 9-4 Against The Spread (ATS). In the past five games, Air Force is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS. The Falcons have America’s second-ranked running attack with 322.1 yards per game. During their last five games, the Falcons gave up 196.8 passing yards per game. The Golden Bears will have to keep Air Force from hitting their quarterback. The Falcons average the 19th-most sacks in the nation with 2.7 per game. California might put Air Force away early because the Falcons are one of the top teams in scoring offense during the fourth quarter. So far this year, they’ve averaged 10.1 fourth-quarter points.
Across the field, the Golden Bears have a record of 5-7 ATS and 7-5 SU. In the previous five games, California has a record of 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. The Falcons may be catching the Golden Bears at the wrong time. They have found their groove on offense in the past five games, averaging 551.2 total yards during that span. The California pass defense has given teams nightmares during the past five games as well. During that time, opponents have gained an average of only 241.0 passing yards against this scary unit. The Falcons will need to secure the ball against the turnover-minded Golden Bears. The defense ranks 19th in the country in turnovers with two per game. The Falcons will have to stay focused in the third quarter against California. The Golden Bears usually start off the second half with dominance, averaging a Division I-leading 13.2 points during the third quarter.
Predictions: SU Winner – Air Force, ATS Winner – Air Force, O/U – Over
Notes
Air Force is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Air Force’s last 8 games.
California is 4-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Air Force is 8-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
California is an even 2-2 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 4-2 SU when losing the turnover battle.
The California defense has forced an average of 2.0 turnovers per game this season, but Air Force is 4-2 SU when turning the ball over at least 2.0 times in a game.
