The Belmont Bruins (7-6) play the Valparaiso Crusaders (10-2) at Curb Event Center. The game starts at 8:00 pm ET on Monday, Dec. 28.
The Bruins lost a winnable game to Cleveland State 67-65 the last time they played. Mack Mercer played well in the loss for Belmont, recording 20 points and 10 rebounds to earn his first double-double of the season. The Crusaders are coming off a 74-45 win over Missouri State in their last outing. Tevonn Walker played well for Valparaiso, recording 18 points, six rebounds, and two steals.
Over the last five games, Alec Peters has been on a tear for the Crusaders. During that stretch, he has averaged 21.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, 0.8 assists, 0.8 steals, and 3.8 three-pointers.
From an eFG% perspective, this will be a balanced matchup. The sweet-shooting Belmont offense ranks 14th in the nation in that metric at 57.1%, while Valparaiso is eighth-best in the nation at forcing opponents’ misses (41.7%).
This will be the second matchup of the season between these two teams. The Crusaders won the first game 61-57. Peters was a top performer in the victory with 17 points, five rebounds, three assists, one steal, and two three-pointers.
Belmont, a three-point underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Valparaiso. The matchup currently has a 145-point Over/Under (O/U). The Bruins are attempting to build on their records of 7-6 Straight Up (SU) and 5-5 Against The Spread (ATS).
On the other side, the Crusaders head into the game with records of 5-4 ATS and 10-2 SU. Valparaiso’s three-point defense is one of the top in the country, with opponents shooting only .294 from the three. They average 8.3 steals per game, good for 35th in the nation.
Valparaiso won the last meeting this season between these two teams, bringing its SU record to 2-1. However, with a 1-0 record, Belmont has the advantage ATS.
Predictions: SU Winner – Valpo, ATS Winner – Valpo, O/U – Under
Notes
Belmont is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games.
Belmont is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Valparaiso.
Valparaiso has allowed an average of 61.7 points per away game this season. Belmont averages 91.7 points per home game, ranking 14th in scoring.
The Valparaiso Crusaders have the best defense in the country, giving up just 83.4 points per 100 possessions. The Belmont Bruins have the 89th-ranked offense, scoring 110.4 points in the same number of possessions.
Valparaiso has an average field goal percentage of 43.1%. Belmont is a losing 3-5 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Belmont Bruins and the Valparaiso Crusaders both rank higher in average effective field goal percentage when compared to their field goal percentages. Belmont is 25th and 14th in the nation for FG% and eFG% respectively, while Valparaiso is 218th and 187th in these categories.
Belmont ranks 49th in assists, registering 16.5 per game. Valparaiso performs worse at 234th with 12.7 assists per game.
Belmont ranks 332nd in offensive rebounds, while Valparaiso ranks 27th in defensive rebounds.
The Belmont Bruins make an average of 4.3 steals per game. When the Valparaiso Crusaders allow 4 or more steals, they are an outstanding 8-2.
