The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans clash at NRG Stadium with the winner advancing to the AFC Divisional Round. The NFL’s third-leading receiver, DeAndre Hopkins (1,521 yards, 11 TDs), will be on display in this contest. It will begin Saturday, Jan 9 at 4:35 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN and ABC.
Houston blew out the Jaguars 30-6 last week. J.J. Watt led the way for the Houston defense in the win, totaling five tackles and three sacks. Kansas City managed to get the win as well, beating the Raiders 23-17. Ron Parker led the Kansas City defense, registering five tackles, one sack, and one interception.
Kansas City is a three-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is 40 points.
Heading into Week 18 of league action, the Texans are 9-7 for both Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS). In the past five games, Houston is 3-2 for both SU and ATS. The Texans are averaging 131.2 rushing yards over their last five games, higher than their season average of 108.2. Turning to the Texans defense, a few key spots could be deciding factors this week. The Chiefs may have a difficult time throwing the ball against the Texans’ third-best pass defense which has allowed 210.4 passing yards per game this season. A vital part of the game will be if the Chiefs can protect their quarterback from Houston’s vicious defense. It averages the fifth-most sacks in the league with 2.8 per game. Look for Houston to run an up-tempo, fast-paced offense. They rank first in the league with an average of 70.4 plays per game.
As for their opponent, the Chiefs have 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS records this season. In the previous five games, Kansas City has a record of 5-0 SU and 2-3 ATS. The Chiefs are generally effective at running the ball, owning the third-best yards per carry average in the league at 4.7. Switching gears to the Kansas City defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Texans. The Chiefs are the best in the league at stopping their opponents’ passing game, allowing a completion rate of 57.5%. Pass protection will be essential for the Texans against the tenacious Chiefs defense, ranking fourth in the league in sacks with 2.9 per game. The Chiefs don’t waste time early in the game, averaging 5.9 points in the first quarter this year. Special teams help provide a spark for Kansas City. They average the second-most return yards in the NFL with 101.4.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, ATS Winner – KC, O/U – Under
Notes
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston’s last 5 games at home.
Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City.
Kansas City is 9-1 SU when leading at the half this season. Houston is 6-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Kansas City is only 2-3) SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 8-2 SU when losing the turnover battle.
Kansas City is an even 4-4 SU this season when allowing at least 3.0 sacks in a game. The Houston defense is averaging 3.2 sacks over its last five games.
The Kansas City pass defense is ranked ninth in the league, while the Houston passing attack is ranked only 18th. The Chiefs’ passing game is ranked just 30th, compared to the third-ranked pass defense of the Texans.
