Southwest Division foes will collide when the New Orleans Pelicans (11-22) face the Dallas Mavericks (20-15) at the Smoothie King Center. Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Wednesday, Jan. 6 and can be seen on FSW and FSN.
The Pelicans enter this game hoping for similar success after topping the Mavericks 105-98 on Saturday. Anthony Davis was a key piece, recording his 21st double-double of the season with 31 points and 14 rebounds. The Mavericks, meanwhile, are coming off a 117-116 win against the Kings on Tuesday. Wesley Matthews had a good game for Dallas, registering 20 points, four assists, and three rebounds.
Second-chance opportunities could be few and far between for the Pelicans in this one. They rank 30th in the league in offensive rebounding (offensive rebound percentage of just 19.5%), while Dallas is fifth-best in the NBA on the defensive glass (defensive rebound percentage of 77.7%). The Mavericks should also expect to protect the ball well. They rank second at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.2%). Conversely, the Pelicans force the fourth-fewest turnovers in the league (opponents’ turnover percentage of 12.7%).
The Pelicans are a slim two-point favorite at home against Dallas. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently 206 points. The Pelicans come into this game 11-22 Straight Up (SU) and 13-20 Against The Spread (ATS). They have the same record SU and ATS against divisional opponents, going 4-3. The Pelicans have no trouble scoring as they rank third in the league in home offense with 107.5 points per game.
In the other locker room, the Mavericks have a record of 20-15 both ATS and SU. Against fellow division members, Dallas has a 3-5 SU and a 4-4 ATS record. The Mavericks rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, ranking fifth in the league with 338 made (9.0 per game). Defensive rebounding is an area where Dallas has excelled. The Mavericks average 33.6 defensive rebounds per game, making them one of the best in the league. Taking care of the basketball is something the Mavericks do very well, averaging just 13.0 turnovers per game.
In their previous meeting this season, New Orleans beat Dallas, but the win was not enough to overtake Dallas in the recent head-to-head series. Its record is now 3-7 SU over the most recent 10 meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 5-5 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – Dal, ATS Winner – Dal, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans’s last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans’s last 8 games at home.
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home.
New Orleans is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games when playing Dallas.
New Orleans is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas.
New Orleans is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas.
New Orleans is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Dallas.
New Orleans ranks 14th in points per game with 101.8, while Dallas ranks 17th in points allowed with an average of 101.5 given up.
Dallas ranks 10th in points allowed per road game (104.0 PPG), while New Orleans ranks third in points per home game with 107.5.
The Dallas Mavericks won their last game by a one-point margin. In games decided by a margin of three points or less, the New Orleans Pelicans are 2-0. Dallas is 3-3 in close games this season.
The Dallas Mavericks are 13-2 in games where they allow fewer than 100 points, while the New Orleans Pelicans are winless (0-16) when scoring less than 100.
The Dallas Mavericks have a poor 7-13 record in games where they have allowed at least 100 points. The New Orleans Pelicans are 11-6 when they hit the century mark.
The Pelicans have a defensive rating of 107.8 (ranked 29th), while the Mavericks rank 11th for their offensive rating of 103.8.
The New Orleans Pelicans average a field goal percentage of 44.7% this season. The Dallas Mavericks have a losing record of 7-12 when opponents have a FG% of 44.7% or greater.
The Dallas Mavericks rank lower for their field goal percentage (17th) than their effective field goal percentage (12th), while the New Orleans Pelicans rank the same for both metrics (13th).
New Orleans makes an average of 21.4 assists per game (ranked 18th). Dallas ranks higher in assists with 21.8 (ranked 13th).
The New Orleans Pelicans average 5.0 blocks per game for a rank of 13th. The Dallas Mavericks rank lower (30th), earning 3.5 blocks each game.
The New Orleans Pelicans are among the worst offensive rebounding teams (ranked 30th), while the Dallas Mavericks are one of the NBA’s top defensive rebounding teams (ranked fifth).
The New Orleans Pelicans make an average of 7.2 steals per game. When the Dallas Mavericks allow 7 or more steals, they are a solid 14-9.
