| Capitals vs Islanders | Panthers vs Senators | Flyers vs Wild |
| ML +100 / -110 | ML -104 / -106 | ML +141 / -156 |
| O/U 5 | O/U 5.5 | O/U 5 |
| Jets vs Stars | Coyotes vs Flames | Maple Leafs vs Kings |
| ML +167 / -186 | ML +140 / -155 | ML +197 / -220 |
| O/U 5.5 | O/U 5.5 | O/U 5 |
| Red Wings vs Sharks | ||
| ML +113 / -125 | ||
| O/U 5.5 |
Play of the Day: Red Wings over Sharks. The Sharks have struggled mightily at the SAP Center, 1-5 in their last six home games and 5-11 overall. They are also 0-4 in their last four home games against teams with a winning record. Detroit, meanwhile, enters this game 5-1 in their last six against teams with a losing record. All-star Dylan Larkin enters the game on a three-game point streak, and a healthy Pavel Datsyuk has 8 points in his last 10 games.
Even though the Detroit offense has been disappointing, they continue to rack up games where they own possession numbers, but not the scoreboard. They have a tendency to beat up on sub-.500 teams, with the over being 5-1 in their last six. San Jose has hit the over in six of their last seven games, going 3-3-1 in that stretch.
LeftWingLock also believes that the Red Wings will be starting Jimmy Howard over Petr Mrazek. Howard sports a .910 save percentage and a 2.66 goals against average. But more importantly, he has a reputation of letting some easy goals slip through. Of goalies with at least 15 starts, his low-danger save percentage is .960, sixth-worst in the league. For frame of reference, Mrazek’s is .989, third best in the league; even better than Holtby. Mrazek is sixth in the league in high-danger save percentage, too. The bottom line is, there’s a significant difference and the Sharks will likely capitalize. In their last meeting, Howard started against Martin Jones and let in three goals on 14 shots.
Martin Jones also has a .910 save percentage and a 2.52 goals against average. The Sharks have allowed the eighth-most 5v5 goals in the league this season with 71. Even though, as a team, they usually about break even shot-wise, they just can’t seem to keep it out of the net.
At -125/+113 with a 5.5 over/under, take Detroit for the over.
The Game to Watch: Capitals at Islanders. The Caps and Isles sit at 1 and 2 in the Metro Division rankings, but it’s Washington who sits atop the league as the current front-runner for the President’s Trophy with 61 points. They have one more win than the next best team, Dallas, and they have three games in hand. So, they’ve done pretty well for themselves, which is in line with what a lot of pundits expected.
The Isles’ shorthanded play has been shockingly, even historically, good this year. They are currently third in penalty killing, though a franchise-record 42 straight successful kills had them at first in the league just before New Year’s Eve. Credit where it’s due, Jack Capuano has acknowledged his system’s shortcomings after last year, and sworn to improve on them. They look much more aggressive and are applying much more pressure on the puck-carrier, as opposed to strictly playing zone coverage. They’ve dipped in efficiency in their last few games, though, as their last three games have seen four powerplay goals allowed on 12 tries (Dallas also scored with an empty net, if you want to call that a man advantage).
They’ve been trying so hard to cover the middle of the ice and prevent one-timers that they’ve been allowing more pucks to get to the man on the doorstep next to the net. Sidney Crosby scored twice the same way (one was disallowed) on the same powerplay a few nights ago by positioning himself by the left post and stick-handling his way to a goal.
A penalty killing slump is not good when going up against the greatest man-advantage player alive, Alex Ovechkin. The Caps operate at 25.8%, second in the league. Factor in that Jaroslav Halak has missed his last five starts due to an upper-body injury that had already sidelined him at the beginning of the season, and his return could be a rocky one.
Special teams will be the decider in this one as, injuries or no injuries, the goaltender match-up features some of the best numbers in the game. All-Star Braden Holtby leads full-time goalies (more than half of team’s starts on the year) in both save percentage and goals against average; .932/1.93 in 32 games. Halak isn’t far behind him, rocking a .923/2.09 split in 20 starts.
The Isles being favored at -110/+100 with an over/under of 5 doesn’t make this much of a lucrative play, but if you’re so inclined to win a wager on a divisional rivalry, take the Caps and take the under. Calling my shot: Caps win 3-1.
Other Game Notes
Panthers vs Senators: The Panthers are not a very high-scoring team in general, as evidenced by the fact their leading scorer only has 29 points (Jaromir Jagr). The Sens are actually the second-worst team in the league in shot attempts, donning an abominable 46.5% team Corsi rating. Two of their last 10 meetings have resulted in a shootout, including their most recent one just a few weeks back, a 2-1 win for Florida. Ride the red-hot Panthers for a stone-cold under at 5.5.
Flyers vs Wild: Devan Dubnyk probably couldn’t be happier that he’s returning home after a four-game road trip that saw the Wild play well, but come away 2-2. Dubnyk is 11-5 this season at home with four shutouts. The Flyers, meanwhile, continue to wait for Jakub Voracek’s 3.6% shooting to improve, even if he is racking up the assists. They’re also going to be relying on Shayne Gostisbehere to continue to be a force on the blueline. Steve Mason needs help, as he is once again a top-five goaltender in 5v5 save percentage, but is still sporting a horrific 2.85 goals against average. The 5 over/under is tempting, if only just because Philly is capable of surrendering four on any given night- they’ve allowed three or more in four of their last five.
Jets vs Stars: The best offense in the league is going up against the sixth-worst defense in the league. Patrick Sharp is on a 10-game point streak. Even if the Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck stands on his head, Dallas’ probable starter Kari Lehtonen has been porous of late. At 5.5, take the over. Even though the Jets are capable of winning, and the Stars are coming off three bad losses to the Devils, Islanders and Rangers, Dallas will bounce back hard. The line isn’t worth the risk.
Coyotes vs Flames: History is not on Arizona’s side. The Flames have won seven of their last 10 meetings, including eight straight home wins against the Coyotes. Calgary has won 13 of their last 16 in the Saddledome, and they’ve heated up for an 11-4 record of late. The ‘Yotes have a lot of trouble stringing together multiple wins in a row, especially when they go on the road. Expect nothing different. It’s a safe play, take Calgary for the under at 5.5.
Maple Leafs at Kings: There are many reasons why the Kings will beat the Leafs, but the main reason is Jonathan Bernier. Forced to the number one job as James Reimer sits out with an upper-body injury, Bernier has shoddy numbers. Even with a shutout in last night’s game against Anaheim — and that is not really some great feat this season — Bernier is playing back-to-back nights, something that he and the Leafs are both not very good at. There’s a reason the Kings are -220. Take the over while you’re at it.
