Around the NHL: Predictions for January 11th

There are only four games slated for tonight starting at 7 PM. So let’s go around the NHL and get the predictions and plays for the night!

Play of the Day: Panthers over Canucks.

The Florida Panthers are the real deal. They are not only getting better with each passing game, they are getting smarter. Head coach Gerard Gallant was sure to start Al Montoya last night in Edmonton so that his red-hot starter had an extra day’s rest for the tail end of a back-to-back.

Luongo has won his last 10 starts amidst what is now a 12-game win streak for his team. With their win last night over Edmonton, the Cats have now won a franchise-best 6 consecutive road games. They are rolling, and getting contributions up and down their lineup. Even though Jaromir Jagr has obvious star power, the Panthers don’t have one standout superstar to carry the team. They have one of the most complete lineups in hockey, and it’s showing.

The Canucks were lucky to escape with a point after the Lightning came into their building and outshot them 17-5 in the third period. It took a late goal from Bo Horvat to send the game to overtime. Nikita Kucherov eventually scorched Jakub Markstrom on a breakaway to end it.

The Canucks are currently a playoff team with a 16-16-10 record. Read that again. That is not a good record at all. They are 2-2-1 in their last five, including a shootout win against Anaheim. If their division wasn’t as inept as it is, they would be buried.

Even if it is a back-to-back for Florida, they are rolling over everyone. Earlier in this streak of theirs, they defeated the Canucks in the shootout. Expect more of the same.

Prediction: Panthers with the under.

The Game to Watch: Sharks vs Flames.
If the Panthers do happen to beat the Canucks as predicted, then this game becomes all-the-more important. The Pacific Division is weak. That’s a well-known point by now. How weak? The winner of this game will leapfrog three other teams, Canucks and their opponent in this game included, into a playoff spot.

This division is kind of like what the NFC East was to the NFL playoff race this year: it’s so bad that it’s probably the tightest race there is. In both divisions in the Eastern Conference, there is a possibility of a Wild Card spot if a division spot cannot be won. Pacific contenders really won’t have much of a shot outside of a division berth at this rate. So every game against a division rival counts.

The Sharks are coming off their best offensive performance of the season. In the spirit of the NFL playoffs, they beat the Maple Leafs by a touchdown, 7-0. Brent Burns put his name into consideration for goal of the year by breezing past four Leafs. They’ve gotten into some high-scoring affairs, but are just too inconsistent in their own zone.

And play in the defensive zone is a specialty for Calgary, who have two of the best puck-moving defensemen in the West. “Puck-moving” is a blanket term for offensive defensemen that is all too often misconstrued as being a talented scorer but limited in their own zone. Untrue for Mark Giordano and TJ Brodie. Giordano was a Norris candidate before his injury last season, and Brodie at 25 only gets better with each passing game. The Flames offense starts in their own zone from their blueliners.

Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan will get the name recognition, but Brodie and Giordano deserve a lot of credit for Calgary’s success.

Prediction: It’s not a real sexy line, but take the Flames with the over.

Other Game Notes Around the NHL

Bruins vs Rangers: This is exactly what is meant by “no appealing underdogs” today. There is absolutely no way to predict what New York Rangers team will show up anymore. They came out of the gate sprinting hard then face-planted on asphalt and skid for the entire month of December. In the New Year they’ve dominated the Dallas Stars and staged an encouraging comeback against the Capitals, albeit one that came up short. Those two teams led the President’s Trophy running at the time of the game. Washington still leads.

But let’s just take that comeback against Washington. On one hand, it’s great that players like Oscar Lindberg and Kevin Hayes broke their respective scoring droughts (12 and 18 games, respectively). On the other hand, head coach Alain Vigneault responded to the positive play by having Lindberg serve as an extra skater in practice yesterday. He will most likely be a healthy scratch tonight despite having a goal, an assist and a 57.5% Corsi rating his last three games. Perplexing.

Another positive possession player riding the pines is Dylan McIlrath. The young defenseman leads all Rangers defensemen in 5v5 shot attempt ratio with 53.5%. Meanwhile, the other Broadway blueliners do…well, this.

The point is this: there is no telling whether the competent Rangers will show up or not. Chris Kreider returns from injury, but Oscar Lindberg sits out for him even though he has objectively contributed more. Step forward, step backward.

While the Bruins could very well pounce on New York, Madison Square Garden has been a safe haven of sorts for the Rangers. They are 4-1-1 in their last six home games. The home team has won the last four games these two have played. Plus, the Bruins will be missing the man who scored the game winning goal late in their last matchup, David Krecji. Old news, but forever relevant.

Prediction: In a game like this, go with your gut and the better team on paper. Take the Rangers for the over.

Red Wings vs Kings: This line is much more enticing, though be warned of its seductiveness. The Red Wings are in the middle of a tremendously successful road trip, taking four straight. They started on one end of the country in Buffalo and will finish having toured all of California and Arizona. The travel has not proven to be an issue.

They’ve won tight games. Their last five wins have been by one, which makes 17 of their 22 wins by just one goal. Excluding empty netters, that number rises to 19. Their last three wins have been stone-cold unders, as they’ve been against struggling offenses.

Enter the Los Angeles Kings, the best possession team in the National Hockey League. They outshoot their opponents 5v5 at a rate of 56.2%. That’s no surprise. They’ve been atop the league in that category the past three years and in the top three the past five.

While they’ve gotten points in seven of their last eight contests, the Kings offense has been slowing down just a bit. Four or five goals a night has slowed to one or two. But at the rate they fire at the net, it’s near impossible to keep them off the scoresheet.

Prediction: All signs seem to be indicating this game will be *gasp* decided by one goal. Take the Kings at the under.