The Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos play at Sports Authority Field at Mile High with the winner advancing to the AFC Championship Game. This game will feature the NFL’s top receiver, Antonio Brown (1,953 yards, 10 TDs). It will begin Sunday, Jan 17 at 4:40 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS.
Denver picked up a win over the Chargers 27-20 in its last game. Ronnie Hillman had a big game on the ground in the win, gaining 117 yards and one TD on 15 carries. Demaryius Thomas also had a big day, contributing 117 yards and a TD on five receptions. Pittsburgh snuck by the Bengals 18-16. Antonio Brown had an outstanding performance for the Steelers, totaling seven catches for 119 yards.
Denver is a small two-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable.
Heading into Week 19 of league action, the Broncos are 12-4 Straight Up (SU) and 7-7-2 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last five games, the Broncos have records of 3-2 SU and 1-3-1 ATS. The Broncos passing game will face below-average pass coverage. The Steelers currently rank 30th in the NFL with 271.9 passing yards allowed per game. As for the Denver defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. The Steelers may have a difficult time running against the Broncos’ second-ranked run defense who have given up 83.4 rushing yards per game. A vital part of the game will be if the Steelers can protect their quarterback from Denver’s vicious defense. It averages the most sacks in the league with 3.2 per game. Pittsburgh will want to build a solid lead, because the Broncos are one of the top-scoring teams during the fourth quarter. They’ve averaged eight points in the final quarter this season.
Moving to the road team, the Steelers have 10-6 SU and 8-5-3 ATS records this season. The Steelers went 4-1 SU and 2-1-2 ATS over the last five games. The Pittsburgh defense has allowed 91.2 rush yards per game this season, fifth in the league. The Broncos will have to avoid mistakes against the turnover-minded Steelers. The Pittsburgh defense generates 1.9 turnovers per game, third in the league. The Steelers close out games well. They average 9.1 points in the final quarter, more than any other team in the league. Penalties don’t happen often when the Steelers play. They average the third-fewest penalties in the NFL with 5.9 per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, ATS Winner – Pit
Notes
Denver is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Denver is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games.
Denver is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home.
Denver is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home.
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver’s last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh.
Denver is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver’s last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh is 8-3 SU when leading at the half this season. Denver is 8-2 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Remarkably, Pittsburgh is winless (0-5) SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet 9-1 SU when losing the turnover battle.
Pittsburgh is an even 4-4 SU this season when allowing at least 3.0 sacks in a game. The Denver defense is currently averaging 3.2 sacks over the last five games.
According to overall NFL pass rankings, Denver is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its 14th-ranked offensive passing game will face the 30th-ranked pass defense of Pittsburgh, while its first-ranked pass defense will look to limit the third-ranked aerial attack of the Steelers.
