The Wisconsin Badgers (9-8) head to Northwestern to play the Wildcats (14-3) in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 12 and will air on BTN.
The Wildcats come into this game on a high note after blowing out Minnesota 77-52 on Saturday. Aaron Falzon was the game’s leading scorer with 20 points on 7-for-10 shooting. The Badgers, meanwhile, are coming off a close 63-60 loss against Maryland on Saturday. Ethan Happ scored 16 points and recorded 11 rebounds earning his sixth double-double of the season.
Half-court execution will be of utmost importance when two of the nation’s slowest-paced teams square off. Northwestern ranks 317th in possessions per game (66.0), while Wisconsin is 341st (64.7).
Northwestern is favored by a slight two-point margin in its matchup against Wisconsin. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at 127 points. The Wildcats have gone 14-3 Straight Up (SU) and 6-6-2 Against The Spread (ATS). The Wildcats are an incredibly accurate shooting team with a .473 field-goal percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. The Wildcats, sporting the seventh-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.73), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. As for the Northwestern defense, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Wildcats, who allow only 64.1 points per game. Teams have to fight for open shots against the Wildcats, who have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the country at .387.
Over on the other bench, the Badgers have 9-8 SU and 6-11 ATS records. The Badgers are a force on the offensive glass, grabbing an average of 13.2 offensive rebounds per game. The Badgers are one of the top defensive teams in the nation, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of 63.8 points allowed per game. Don’t expect Wisconsin to give away the ball much on offense, where its 11.4 turnovers per game ranks 43rd in the country.
These conference rivals meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Wisconsin won the last game in the matchup, moving its SU record against Northwestern to 9-1 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. Furthermore, Wisconsin leads the matchup ATS with a record of 7-3. In these last five matchups, Wisconsin held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers three times, with Northwestern controlling all three of these areas once.
Predictions: SU Winner – NW, ATS Winner – NW, O/U – Over
Notes
Northwestern is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern’s last 5 games.
Northwestern is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home.
Northwestern is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Wisconsin.
Northwestern is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing Wisconsin.
Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wisconsin.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Northwestern’s last 9 games when playing at home against Wisconsin.
Northwestern scores an average of just 77.2 points per game (ranked 109th). Wisconsin ranks 27th in points allowed, giving up 63.8 points per game.
Northwestern scores just 77.2 points per home game (ranked 188th). Wisconsin ranks 15th in points allowed on the road, giving up 65.2 points.
In its last game, Northwestern won by a margin of 25 points. Wisconsin is 3-0 in games decided by a margin of 18 points or more. Northwestern has a 7-0 record in blowouts.
Ranked 22nd, the Northwestern Wildcats have an offensive rating of 116.9. The Wisconsin Badgers rank 101st with a defensive rating of just 98.0.
On average, Northwestern has 66.0 possessions per game and scores 1.169 points on each possession. Wisconsin has both fewer possessions (64.7) and scores fewer points during those possessions (1.062).
Wisconsin has an average effective field goal percentage of 47.1%. Northwestern is an even 3-3 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
On average, the Northwestern Wildcats attempt 25.0 three point field goals per game and the Wisconsin Badgers attempt 17.0. In games where they attempt at least 20 threes, Northwestern has an exceptional 13-3 record, while Wisconsin is 2-3.
The Northwestern Wildcats rank seventh with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.73, while the Wisconsin Badgers rank outside the top 100 (203rd) with an A/TO of 1.00.
Northwestern, the 92nd-ranked team in rebounding, register an average of 38.8 rebounds per game. Wisconsin does worse, ranked 114th with 38.2.
Wisconsin makes an average of 5.5 steals per game. Northwestern has a solid 5-3 record when it allows at least 5 steals.
