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NFL Betting: Examining The San Francisco 49ers Regular Season Win Total

The San Francisco 49ers are faced with a few very specific challenges this season, based on what happened last season and in the off-season, just before the preseason started. How the Niners deal with what’s in front of them will have a lot to say about whether or not they’ll give coach Jim Harbaugh his first Super Bowl championship.

Strengths

The Niners have one of the best coaches in the NFL. Jim Harbaugh has stepped into a position of great responsibility and won big right off the bat. He’s made the NFC Championship Game in each of his first three seasons in the NFL, a remarkable accomplishment for a guy who, seven years ago, was just beginning to build Stanford to the point where it could compete against tough teams in college football. Harbaugh’s rise in the coaching business has been meteoric, and San Francisco is the beneficiary of his presence on the sidelines. Harbaugh mixes a conventional focus on toughness and defense with a creative emphasis in offensive strategy. He’s been willing to use the pistol formation with Colin Kaepernick, and he’s used some option-flavored hand-off and misdirection plays with other quarterbacks during his time in San Francisco.

Since the 49ers have great players such as running back Frank Gore plus receivers Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree (who is healthy this season after being injured for most of 2013), Harbaugh should be able to find ways to get his guys the ball. On defense, with Justin Smith anchoring the defensive line and Patrick Willis on the patrol in the middle of the team’s layer of linebackers, Harbaugh has so many resources to call upon. This is still a hugely deep team coached by a great sideline leader. There’s so much to like about this team.

Weaknesses

The Niners watched their first-half lead in the NFC Championship Game slip away against the Seattle Seahawks, and in the fourth quarter, when the game was on the line, quarterback Colin Kaepernick, who had looked so good in the first two and a half quarters of that game, committed multiple turnovers. It was a painful and disappointing show of weakness from a player who had led the Niners to the Super Bowl the season before. Kaepernick has been immersed in a number of off-field controversies, and his level of play suffered last season, giving credence to arguments that he’s not as focused or poised as he should be. Kaepernick needs to become a better leader this season if the Niners are to return to the Super Bowl.

The other weakness for this team is fatigue. The 49ers, by making three straight NFC Championship Game appearances, have played about as much football as New England has over the past three seasons, and that much football can catch up with a team. San Francisco has to pace itself over the course of the season, and that’s a hard juggling act to pull off.

Schedule

The 49ers have to deal with the AFC West, which means Denver and Kansas City in addition to San Diego. San Francisco’s non-division NFC games are mostly against the NFC East, plus Chicago and New Orleans.

Outlook

This season feels like make-or-break for the 49ers, who play in a very competitive division and have had to play one very long season after another over the past three years. If the Niners can’t get to the Super Bowl this season, it’s uncertain if the organization can remain stable well into the future. The pressure could break a lot of teams, but for San Francisco, it’s probably going to bring everyone together, with great results. Take the over.

Pick: Over 10.5

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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