Around the NHL: Predictions for January 18th

There are only five games set to be played tonight. Let’s go around the NHL and have a look at the top plays, picks and predictions.

Play of the Day: Sabres over Coyotes.

The money line for this game has the Sabres as underdogs, +140/-155. The over/under is 5.5.

The Sabres are actually coming off a commanding victory against Braden Holtby and the Capitals, of all teams. They have won three of their last four games against real teams — Winnipeg, Minnesota and Washington respectively. Ryan O’Reilly has been a driving force for Buffalo, logging a point in each of their last five games.

The Arizona Coyotes will be starting Louis Domingue, who is 5-0-2 in his last seven starts. Despite Domingue’s commendable performance, general manager Don Maloney still believes that Mike Smith (10-9-1, 3.06 GAA, .901 Sv%) is the team’s number one goaltender. He essentially gave his endorsement saying he will go with whoever gives them “the best chance to win.” Right.

Isn’t that what Rex Ryan said when he would start Mark Sanchez week after week a few years back? Just saying.

Prediction: Robin Lehner is still a very interesting player to watch for Buffalo since he has just one full game under his belt this year. I believe he’ll be able to steal one tonight for the Sabres. Go ahead and pick Buffalo to win at +140. Play the under 5.5 too.

The Game to Watch: Penguins vs Blues
This is the best game in terms of the quality of both teams that will be held tonight. The Penguins can leapfrog over the Canadiens and into a tie for the top Wild Card spot with Boston. St. Louis is comfortably settled into the third divisional spot in the Central.

Pittsburgh was surprisingly energized in last night’s game against Carolina. A key reason for this was Carl Hagelin. Though he did not register a point, he did get four shots on goal, tied for the team lead with Evgeni Malkin. Hagelin only saw a little over 13 minutes of ice time, but that includes two minutes on the penalty kill. And of course, he was a natural. The speedy Swede is one of the best protectors of the neutral zone in the league. He was a positive possession player per the usual at evens.

Hagelin was clearly motivated to succeed in his new environment, but playing a game less than 24 hours from being traded is very tough. Playing two games within 48 hours is extremely difficult given that Hagelin is a very system-oriented player. For him to get consistent chances, he has to be actively involved in the play. His shot isn’t good enough for him to be planted in a location and open fire.

The Blues are 3-1 in their last four games. Five of their games this month have gone to overtime or a shootout (2-3 in those games). They play teams very tightly and generally with a high score. The over is 4-1-1 in the Blues’ last five games.

A key factor will be Kris Letang, and whether he will be in the starting lineup for Pittsburgh. An injury forced him to the sidelines against Carolina last night and is rumored to be a gametime decision.

Brian Elliott will be coming off a career game to start tonight. Jeff Zatkoff will likely get the start for the Pens according to LeftWingLock.

Prediction: The Pens will start to experience those bumps in the road with readjusting their top six to slide Hagelin in. It will be a short hiccup but a hiccup nonetheless. Take the Blues to win tonight.

Other Game Notes Around the NHL

Oilers vs Panthers: The Panthers desperately need a bounce-back win. They have dropped three in a row now following up their 12-game win streak. They will need to be very careful as to not turn into the New York Rangers, going on a long win streak only to complete fizzle out and lose confidence.

Tonight they will be going up against recently-extended Cam Talbot and the Edmonton Oilers. Taylor Hall has one point in his last six games. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been scoreless in four. Leon Draisaitl has not scored in 17 games. The wheels are coming off. Connor McDavid can’t come back soon enough.

Most likely, the Panthers will start Al Montoya on the tail end of a back-to-back. Montoya is 7-1-1 this season with a 1.71 goals against average and a .937 save percentage.

Prediction: The Panthers will need this game more than they’ve needed any game the last month. Take the Cats for the win tonight.

Avalanche vs Jets: The Avalanche and Jets are two teams that love to take one step forward, two steps back, then another forward. Colorado’s offense has been clicking, especially Matt Duchene and Tyson Barrie, yet their powerplay is fizzling in their last few games. Their backup goaltender Calvin Pickard has been playing decently, yet Semyon Varlamov has allowed 14 goals in his last four games.

Varlamov is incredibly athletic, but his positioning and rebound control leaves a lot to be desired. His one season as a Vezina candidate was an anomaly, I say that with upmost confidence. This Avalanche team has a coach and management that blatantly ignore the fact that they are pretty terrible at defensive zone coverages and that they are the worst team in the league in possession.

Varlamov will be taking on young Connor Hellebuyck. I’ve seen more reassuring and impressive aspects of Hellebuyck’s game after 18 games than I’ve ever seen in Varlamov’s.

Prediction: The Jets at home should pounce on the weak Avalanche defense. Take Winnipeg for the win at -135, and play the over 5.5.

Senators vs Sharks: This game has the biggest discrepancy between the favorite and underdog, with a +144/-160 money line in favor of San Jose.

The Sharks have been rolling lately, taking five games in a row. Their latest win was one that was huge for confidence, as they blew a one-goal lead twice early in the third period. They would take the game in overtime. Nevertheless, the offense has come alive for the Sharks. Marc-Edouard Vlasic has seemingly been a completely different player his last two months than his first. Tomas Hertl seems to be coming around too. The key factor is simply health. At 100%, the Sharks are not really all that bad.

The Senators are coming off a very Senators-type game. They managed only 22 shots on goal, but four of them found the back of the net. Including an empty netter, Ottawa put up four goals in the third period to best the Los Angeles Kings. Their game-tying goal was pretty lucky. Two of their other goals came on rebounds forcing Jonathan Quick out of position. The game-winning goal was aided by an over-commitment by Quick in the crease on the powerplay.

Their comeback was impressive, but the pucks were also bouncing the Sens way and they forced a lot of turnovers and mental mistakes from Los Angeles. They may have tougher luck today against the Sharks.

Prediction: Take San Jose at -160. Take the over 5.5.