The Fresno State Bulldogs (12-6) travel to Viejas Arena at Aztec Bowl to play the San Diego State Aztecs (12-6) in a matchup of the Mountain West’s top two teams. The game gets underway at 11:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 19 and will air on ESU and ES3.
The Aztecs edged Boise State 56-53 on Saturday. With 13 points and 10 rebounds, Winston Shepard recorded his third double-double this season. The Bulldogs are coming off an 81-74 win over San Jose State on Saturday. Marvelle Harris led the game in scoring with 32 points on 9-for-14 shooting.
The aggressive San Diego State offense seems poised to dominate from the foul line. It ranks 22nd in the nation with a FTA rate of 44.2, while Fresno State is among the nation’s most foul-prone squads (giving up a 329th-ranked FTA rate of 45.6).
San Diego State, a seven-point favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Fresno State. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at 129 points. The Aztecs enter the game with records of 12-6 Straight Up (SU) and 6-5-3 Against The Spread (ATS). The San Diego State defense has been very good, only giving up 60.1 points per game. Teams have to fight for open shots against the Aztecs, who have one of the best opponent field-goal percentages in the country at .363. An area where the Aztecs are particularly strong is shot blocking, where they average 5.4 blocks per game, 22nd in Division I. Fresno State has a habit of getting in foul trouble (22.7 fouls per game), so expect the Aztecs to get a number of opportunities from the free throw line.
On the other side, the Bulldogs head into the game with records of 6-7 ATS and 12-6 SU. Fresno State is one of the better offensive rebounding teams in Division I. The Bulldogs average 13.8 offensive rebounds per game, making them the 25th-best team in the country for that category. When it comes to stealing the ball, the Bulldogs are one of the best in the nation with an average of 7.8 steals per game.
This game marks the first time these teams will play this season. The last time San Diego State and Fresno State played, San Diego State won, bringing its SU record to 9-1 over Fresno State in their most recent games. Additionally, San Diego State leads the matchup ATS with a record of 6-4. San Diego State and Fresno State each held the edge in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once in their last five meetings.
Predictions: SU Winner – Fres, ATS Winner – Fres, O/U – Under
Notes
San Diego State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego State’s last 6 games.
San Diego State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home.
San Diego State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Fresno State.
San Diego State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Fresno State.
San Diego State is a perfect 5-0 SU against its conference, while Fresno State sits at 3-2 SU.
Fresno State scores just 71.8 points per away game (ranked 130th). San Diego State ranks 13th in points allowed at home, giving up 57.8 points.
The San Diego State Aztecs have a defensive rating of 91.9 (ranked 15th), while the Fresno State Bulldogs have an offensive rating of 107.5 (ranked 131st).
The San Diego State Aztecs average a field goal percentage of 41.6% this season. The Fresno State Bulldogs have an underachieving record of 3-6 when opponents have a FG% of 41.6% or greater.
The San Diego State Aztecs and the Fresno State Bulldogs both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. San Diego State is 305th and 291st in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Fresno State ranks 248th and 157th in these categories.
San Diego State, the 22nd-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 5.4 per game. Fresno State ranks 95th with 4.2.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, Fresno State ranks 25th. San Diego State ranks 83rd in defensive rebounds.
San Diego State averages a forced turnover rate of 18.7% this season. Fresno State has a 3-4 record when it suffers a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
