The Australian Open now moves closer to the midpoint of the whole tournament and the seeded ladies continue to get canceled out. It’s been an ugly first few days for those with that magic number next to their name as a large chunk of them have been ushered out. The ladies batch of the top tier to get bounced includes No. 6 seed Petra Kvitova, who lost in straight sets to the unseeded Daria Gavrilova. Also missing the cut was No. 18 Elina Svitolina, No. 19 Jelena Jankovic and No. 30 Sabine Lisicki. It’s also worth noting that Canadian Eugenie Bouchard lost in a tough match again No. 4 seed Agnieszka Radwanska. Bouchard was ranked as high as No. 5 last year but suffered a concussion in the locker room at the 2015 U.S. Open. She’s been on the long road to recovery but clearly, she’s not quite back to form just yet.
On Friday in Melbourne, the top half of the draw will play its third-round women’s singles matches.
Belinda Bencic vs. Kateryna Bondarenko
Odds: Bencic -375
One of the third-round matches which should really crackle is this one. You might think it will be a dull and uneventful match, given that Bondarenko knocked off the No. 23 seed and two-time major champion, Svetlana Kuznetsova, in the second round. A meeting between a 23-seed and the No. 12 seed in Bencic might have been more appealing. However, Bondarenko is a more in-form opponent for Bencic, creating a match which really could go either way. You will not find a lot of people who closely follow tennis who would be shocked at a Bondarenko win. Maybe you’d find some experts who would be mildly surprised, but not blown away in absolute disbelief. Ultimately, though, this is still Bencic’s match to lose. The youngster showed a lot of composure last year in Toronto, where she defeated Serena Williams in a very close match in the semifinals. It’s always impressive when anyone can beat Serena head-to-head, but Bencic is very young, and her awareness on court is something a lot of her similarly-aged peers lack. That’s going to carry her through this match, unless Bondarenko finds a much higher level. This will go three, but Bencic will tough it out.
Betting Pick: Bencic in three sets
Anna-Lena Friedsam vs. Roberta Vinci
Odds: Vinci -408
This is a matchup in which you have to favor the veteran who has been there, done that, and beaten Serena Williams at a major tournament. Friedsam took one set off Serena at last year’s French Open, but Vinci won two sets in the U.S. Open semifinal which denied Williams a true Grand Slam, all four major titles in the same year for 2015. Vinci is smart about mixing up the pace and not giving her opponent the same shot on consecutive strokes. She makes opponents deal with different spins, speeds and placements. This will be very tough for Friedsam to deal with. She doesn’t have the cagey and shrewd qualities of Vinci. It might be the case that Vinci doesn’t hit hard, but she has to be defeated by an opponent who can blast away from the baseline and make her look slow. Friedsam is not in that category, or at least, not enough to matter. Take Vinci.
Pick: Vinci in straight sets
Kristina Mladenovic vs. Daria Gavrilova
Odds: Mladenovic -118
This match is the result of Gavrilova’s upset of No. 6 seed Petra Kvitova in the second round. Gavrilova is a rising young player, and therefore needs to be taken very seriously. She should achieve a lot before she is done in tennis. Her time, though, has not yet arrived. Mladenovic is more advanced in her career. She reached the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open last year and very nearly beat Vinci in the quarterfinals. The loss didn’t seem like much at the time, but when Vinci made the U.S. Open finals after beating Serena, it became clearer that Mladenovic had lost to a pretty good player (in the top 15). Mladenovic uses a very effective drop shot and generally disguises her shots well. That’s going to be a tough problem for Gavrilova to solve, although the underdog should be able to take this into a third set.
Pick: Mladenovic in three sets
