The Albany Great Danes (15-5) travel to USB Sports Complex to square off against the Stony Brook Seawolves (14-4) in a matchup of the America East’s top two teams. The game starts at 9:00 pm ET on Friday, Jan. 22 and will air on ESU and ES3.
The Seawolves easily got past Hartford 77-43 on Monday. Jameel Warney played a key role, recording 13 points and 11 rebounds to notch his 12th double-double this season. The Great Danes, meanwhile, are coming off an 80-59 win over Binghamton on Monday. Ray Sanders stood out, recording 16 points, five rebounds, and three assists.
Points at the line might be difficult to come by for the Seawolves in this contest. They are 331st in the nation in FTA rate (28.8), while Albany is among the nation’s least foul-prone teams (allowing a FTA rate of just 26.3, 20th in the country). Moreover, the Great Danes are among the nation’s elite on the offensive backboards, ranking 29th in OR% at 36.6%. But the Seawolves rank 26th at corralling defensive rebounds with a DR% of 75.3%.
Stony Brook is an eight-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at 135 points. The Seawolves are a disappointment Against The Spread (ATS) with a 0-2 record, while sporting a 14-4 Straight Up (SU) record. The Seawolves are a dangerously accurate shooting team with a .477 field-goal percentage, one of the highest marks in Division I. Stony Brook has an edge in the rebounding department for this game, where it racks up an average of 40.2 rebounds per game. The Seawolves, sporting the 18th-best assist-to-turnover ratio in Division I (1.53), have proven themselves to be an extremely efficient offensive team. Turning to the defensive side, teams routinely struggle to score points against the Seawolves, who allow only 62.1 points per game. Teams really have to fight for open three-pointers against the Seawolves, who have one of the best opponent three-point field goal percentages in the nation at .306.
On the other side, the Great Danes are a good bet ATS with a perfect record of 1-0 to go along with a 15-5 SU record. Albany is one of the top foul-shooting teams in the nation, hitting .738 of their shots from the line.
This game marks the first time these teams will play this season. The last time Stony Brook and Albany played, Stony Brook won, evening up the two teams’ head-to-head record over their most recent games (5-5). However, Albany leads the matchup ATS with a record of 3-1. Albany had the advantage in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last five matchups. Stony Brook has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – StnyBr, ATS Winner – StnyBr, O/U – Under
Notes
The Stony Brook Seawolves average 77.6 points per game, ranking 86th in the nation. The Albany Great Danes rank 43rd in points allowed with 65.2.
Stony Brook averages 85.3 points per home game (ranked 36th). Albany allows 68.5 points per away game (ranked 49th).
Albany won its last game by a 21-point margin. In games decided by a margin of 18 points or more, Stony Brook is 7-1. Albany is 5-0 in blowouts this season.
Ranked ninth, the Stony Brook Seawolves have one of the top defenses in the country, giving up just 91.8 points per 100 possessions. The Albany Great Danes rank 72nd in offense, scoring 111.3 points in the same number of possessions.
Albany has an average field goal percentage of 45.5%. Stony Brook is a winning 2-1 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Stony Brook Seawolves and the Albany Great Danes both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Stony Brook is 49th and 35th in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Albany ranks 168th and 99th in these categories.
Ranked 21st in the nation, Stony Brook has an average of 17.2 assists per game. Albany ranks lower at 260th with 12.3.
Stony Brook, the 73rd-ranked team in blocked shots, records an average of 4.5 per game. Albany does worse, ranked 344th with 1.6.
Stony Brook ranks 73rd in offensive rebounding. Albany ranks 189th in defensive rebounding.
On average, Stony Brook makes 7.0 steals per game. Albany has a winning 4-1 record when it gives up at least 7 steals.
