Making our Australian Open picks now gets a little more serious as the tournament moves into the fourth round. Four of the eight quarterfinalists will be decided on Sunday in Melbourne as the pressure intensifies and play shifts into the second week of competition.
Although we did have a slew of upsets early on in the first couple of rounds, the ladies that are still left have been playing at an extremely high level – including four of the top five seeded women at the tournament. There are just five unseeded players that are left hanging around and a number of them could be gone by the time we enter the second week (unseeded Varvara Lepchenko and Zhang Shuai square off while Margarita Gasparyan faces No. 1 seed Serena Williams. Here’s a look at our fourth round picks.
Belinda Bencic vs. Maria Sharapova
Odds: Sharapova -290
One of the fourth-round matches which will get the most attention – this is probably the featured match on Sunday in Australia – is the matchup between rising young star Belinda Bencic and proven veteran Maria Sharapova. Both players have the same ability to solve problems and to endure long matches, winning third sets. Bencic and Sharapova are very different in terms of experience and seniority, but if you follow both of these players, they live for third sets and intense battles. They can go through difficult periods in a match, lose a set, and shrug it off. That’s what higher level players do. Sharapova has won each of the four major championships, while Bencic has not yet won her first major tournament. Yet, the youngster has showed that she’s capable of working her way out of trouble, much as Sharapova has been doing for more than a decade.
What should ultimately be the difference here is that Sharapova has been off the tour for months due to injuries. It’s true that the offseason kept everyone or almost everyone rested, but Bencic has dealt with normal rhythms of play and has not been interrupted or disadvantaged the way Sharapova has. There are more questions about Sharapova’s form, and that alone should give Bencic a slight nod in this match.
Pick: Bencic in three sets
Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Anna-Lena Friedsam
Odds: Radwanska -1376
This is a matchup in which Radwanska should be a huge favorite, despite what the underdog has done. Friedsam got bageled in the first set of her third-round match against 2015 U.S. Open finalist Roberta Vinci. It appeared that Vinci and her veteran wiles were going to outthink and outmaneuver the much younger Friedsam, and certainly, you don’t expect a player to respond to a first set 6-0 loss with a match victory. Yet, Friedsam was indeed able to turn this match around. She won the first four games of the second set, clinched the set, and never really looked back. She deserves a lot of respect for how well she has fought at this tournament. However, Radwanska’s in a completely different class. She’s winning all her matches in straight sets and is looking extremely tough right now. Don’t overthink this match or angle for an upset pick. To lower the juice, bet the straight sets prop as the juice is very high on her on the moneyline.
Pick: Radwanska in straight sets
Carla Suarez-Navarro vs. Daria Gavrilova
Odds: Gavrilova -119
This match is one in which Gavrilova will have the support of the Australian crowd against the veteran from Spain, Suarez-Navarro. Gavrilova is considered a promising young talent. Her game and shotmaking are not in question. Her experience is the variable. Suarez-Navarro has one of the best backhands on tour, but her nerves often get the better of her as tournaments move along. This is a very tough call, but Suarez-Navarro does not deserve the benefit of the doubt. It’s interesting to note here that Suarez-Navarro is the No 10 seed in the tournament and Gavrilova is unseeded, yet it’s the latter who is favored for this match. That should be a telling sign, so lean with the lower-ranked lady.
Pick: Gavrilova in three sets
