Mountain West foes will lock horns when the Air Force Falcons (10-9) challenge the Fresno State Bulldogs (12-7) at Clune Arena. Action begins at 2:00 pm ET on Saturday, Jan. 23 and can be seen on RT.
The Falcons are hoping to rebound after their 83-79 loss to Colorado State on Wednesday. Hayden Graham was the team’s leading scorer with 25 points. The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are feeling some disappointment after their 73-67 loss against San Diego State on Tuesday. Fresno State lost despite the best efforts of Karachi Edo, who recorded his sixth double-double of the season with 15 points and 14 rebounds.
The physical Air Force offense might be getting to the charity stripe a lot in this one. It ranks 35th in the nation at getting to the line (FTA rate of 43.4), while Fresno State is among the nation’s most foul-prone teams (giving up a 332nd-ranked FTA rate of 46.6).
Fresno State takes on Air Force as a five-point favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at 140 points. The Falcons have gone 10-9 Straight Up (SU) and 5-8 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have only managed a record of 1-6 ATS. Air Force will look to take advantage of the Bulldogs and their propensity to foul. Fresno State ranks 338th in the nation in fouls, averaging 22.9 per game.
In the other locker room, the Bulldogs have 12-7 SU and 7-7 ATS records. The Bulldogs have controlled the glass with an average of 39.9 rebounds per game, 50th in the country. Moving on to the Fresno State defense, teams with weak ball handling have not fared well against the Bulldogs, who rank 46th in the nation with 7.8 steals per game.
These conference foes meet for what will be their first head-to-head battle of the season. Fresno State won the last game in the matchup, bumping its SU record over their most recent meetings to 6-1. The Falcons lead the matchup ATS with a record of 5-2. Neither team held the edge in field goals, rebounds, or three-pointers in a single game during this span.
Predictions: SU Winner – Fres, ATS Winner – Fres, O/U – Over
Notes
Air Force is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Air Force’s last 5 games.
Air Force is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Air Force’s last 6 games when playing Fresno State.
The Fresno State Bulldogs have a defensive rating of 98.6 (ranked 98th), while the Air Force Falcons have an offensive rating of 100.0 (ranked 273rd).
The Air Force Falcons average a field goal percentage of 43.2% this season. The Fresno State Bulldogs have a subpar record of 1-6 when opponents have a FG% of 43.2% or greater.
The Air Force Falcons and the Fresno State Bulldogs both rank higher in average field goal percentage when compared to their effective field goal percentages. Air Force is 256th and 221st in the nation for eFG% and FG% respectively, while Fresno State ranks 263rd and 179th in these categories.
Fresno State, the 80th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 4.4 per game. Air Force does worse, ranked 336th with 1.8.
When it comes to offensive rebounds, Fresno State ranks 23rd. Air Force ranks 98th in defensive rebounds.
On average, Air Force forces a turnover rate of 19.1%. When Fresno State turns over the ball at a similar or higher rate, the team has a winning 3-1 record.
