Expect a fast-paced game when the Memphis Tigers (12-7) visit UCF to play the Knights (10-7). The game gets underway at 7:00 pm ET on Tuesday, Jan. 26 and will air on CCS.
The Knights were beaten by Tulsa 75-60 on Sunday. Justin McBride was the team’s high scorer, finishing with 15 points. The Tigers, meanwhile, are coming off a bitter 84-83 loss at the hands of East Carolina on Sunday. Dedric Lawson had a game-high 27 points.
Shaq Goodwin has been on a tear over the last five games for the Tigers, averaging 17.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.0 steal, and 2.4 blocks.
The frequency with which the Tigers shoot free throws could play a key factor in this game. They rank 16th in the nation in FTA rate (46.0), but UCF is among the best in the nation at keeping opponents off the line (ranking sixth by allowing a FTA rate of 24.7).
UCF is a small underdog, with Memphis favored by two. The Over/Under (O/U) is set at 147 points. The Knights look to build on their records of 10-7 Straight Up (SU) and 12-3 Against The Spread (ATS). Opposing offenses have been stifled by the Knights, who allow a field goal percentage of only .402. The Knights do a great job keeping their opponents off of the glass and limiting second-chance points. They average 29.4 defensive rebounds per game, which ranks 10th in Division I.
On the other side, Memphis has a SU record of 12-7 and an ATS record of 6-9-1. Memphis is one of the top foul-shooting teams in the nation, hitting .731 of their shots from the line. The Tigers are a force on the offensive glass, grabbing an average of 13.4 offensive rebounds per game. Shifting to the other side of the court, teams seem to consistently miss three-point shots against the Tigers, who are the 48th-best team in the country in terms of three-point field goal percentage allowed at .313. They average 8.1 steals per game, good for 33rd in the nation.
This game marks the first time these teams will play this season. The last time UCF and Memphis played, Memphis won, moving its SU record against UCF to 9-1 in their most recent head-to-head meetings. The Tigers also hold the advantage ATS with a record of 8-2. Memphis topped the Knights in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last five matchups. UCF has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mem, ATS Winner – UCF, O/U – Over
Notes
Central Florida is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Central Florida’s last 6 games.
Central Florida is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home.
Central Florida is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Memphis.
Central Florida is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Memphis.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida’s last 6 games when playing at home against Memphis.
Central Florida is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis.
Memphis lost its last game by a one-point margin. In games decided by a margin of three points or less, UCF is 1-2. Memphis is also 1-2 in close games this season.
The Memphis Tigers average 74.4 possessions per game and 1.045 points per possession. The UCF Knights earn fewer possessions with 68.8, but they score more points with 1.085.
Memphis has an average effective field goal percentage of 45.3%. UCF is an even 4-4 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
UCF attempts an average of 20.0 three pointers per game and Memphis attempts 18.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the UCF Knights have a winning 6-3 record while the Memphis Tigers have a 4-6 record.
Memphis ranks 75th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.23. UCF is ranked lower at 257th with an A/TO of .93.
Memphis, the eighth-ranked team in rebounding, registers an average of 42.3 rebounds per game. UCF ranks 39th with 40.2.
The Memphis Tigers rank 34th in offensive rebounds, and the UCF Knights rank 10th in the nation in defensive rebounds.
UCF averages a forced turnover rate of 13.7% this season. Memphis has an 8-7 record when it suffers a turnover rate equal to or exceeding this.
