The Oklahoma City Thunder (34-13) can extend a five-game home winning streak when they take on the Houston Rockets (25-22). Action begins at 8:00 pm ET on Friday, Jan. 29 and can be seen on NBA, RSW and FxK.
The Thunder enter this game hoping for similar success after topping the Knicks 128-122 on Tuesday. Kevin Durant played a pivotal role, recording his 15th double-double of the season with 44 points and 14 rebounds. The Rockets, meanwhile, are coming off a 112-111 win against the Pelicans on Monday. James Harden claimed his 11th double-double of the season with 35 points and 11 rebounds.
Harden and Trevor Ariza have upped their production over the last five games for the Rockets. Harden has averaged 28.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, 9.6 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks, and 3.2 three-pointers during that stretch, while Ariza has put up 20.0 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 steals, and 4.4 three-pointers.
When evaluating effective field goal percentage, the Thunder could have a healthy advantage on offense. They’re ranked third in the league in that category at 52.0%, while Houston’s suspect effective field goal percentage defense is ranked 27th, allowing opponents to connect at a rate of 51.9% this year.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams, with the Rockets winning the first matchup 110-105. Harden was the game’s top overall scorer with 37 points.
This one isn’t expected to be close when the Thunder, a big eight-point favorite, take on the Rockets. The matchup has an estimated Over/Under (O/U) of 222 points. While the Thunder have a good Straight Up (SU) record (35-13), they’ve been poor Against The Spread (ATS) with a 19-29 record. They are 24-4 SU and 12-16 ATS against the Western Conference. The Thunder have no trouble scoring as they rank second in the league in offense with 109.3 points per game. The Thunder are one of the best in the NBA in terms of free throws made, making an impressive 19.0 per game. The rebounding edge goes to the Thunder in this matchup, who are one of the top rebounding teams in the league with an average of 47.5 boards per game. The Thunder have really locked down opponents, ranking fifth in the league with a .432 opponent field-goal percentage. Opponents have consistently had their shots rejected by the Thunder, who rank fourth in the league in blocks per game with 6.3. Oklahoma City will look to take advantage of the Rockets and their propensity to foul. Houston ranks 28th in the league in fouls, averaging 22.8 per game.
As for their opponent, the Rockets have a record of 20-28 ATS and 25-23 SU. Against the Western Conference, Houston is 18-13 SU and 15-16 ATS. The Rockets get to the line and convert their free throws at a high volume, ranking second in the league with 958 made (20.0 per game). Moving on to Houston’s defense, the Rockets are a terror in the passing lanes, averaging an NBA-best 9.8 steals per game. Houston is the fifth-best team in the league at scoring points off turnovers with 18.4 per game.
In their previous meeting this season, Houston beat Oklahoma City, bumping its SU record over the last 10 meetings to 6-4. The teams are even ATS, with a 5-5 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – OKC, ATS Winner – OKC, O/U – Over
Notes
Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oklahoma City’s last 6 games.
Oklahoma City is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oklahoma City’s last 5 games at home.
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oklahoma City’s last 14 games when playing Houston.
Oklahoma City is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Houston.
Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Houston.
Oklahoma City is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Houston.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oklahoma City’s last 7 games when playing at home against Houston.
The Houston Rockets are among the highest-scoring squads, earning an average of 104.7 points per game (ranked fourth), while the Oklahoma City Thunder are in the top half of NBA teams in points allowed with 101.3 (ranked 15th).
Oklahoma City has allowed an average of 98.0 points per home game this season. Houston averages 105.0 points per away game, placing the team fifth in scoring.
In games where they allow fewer than 100 points, the Oklahoma City Thunder are a stellar 21-2. In games where they fail to hit triple digits, the Houston Rockets have an abysmal record of 2-11.
When the Oklahoma City Thunder allow at least 100 points they are 13-11, while the Houston Rockets are 23-11 when they register triple digits.
The Rockets have a defensive rating of 106.4 (ranked 24th). The Thunder rank second for their offensive rating of 109.9.
Oklahoma City averages fewer possessions per game than Houston, with 99.2 compared to 99.8. However, the Thunder score an average of 1.099 points per possession, more than the 1.051 that the Rockets score.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have one of the best effective field goal percentages this season, ranking third in the league with an EFF% of 52.0%. When their opponents record a similar or higher EFF%, the Houston Rockets have a poor 9-14 record.
Oklahoma City averages 22.0 three point attempts per game, and Houston attempts 30.0 per game. In games where the teams have 25 or more three point attempts, the Thunder have a winning 8-4 record while the Rockets have a 21-18 record.
Oklahoma City has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.47 this season (ranked 22nd), while Houston ranks lower at 25th with an A/TO of 1.38.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, earning 47.5 rebounds per game (ranked second). The Houston Rockets rank 18th, rebounding 42.9 times each game.
The Houston Rockets are one of the best offensive rebounding teams, currently ranked ninth for the season. The Oklahoma City Thunder rank near the very top of the league (fifth) in defensive rebounding.
Though Houston is one of the best in the league in forcing turnovers with opponents averaging a TOV% of 15.5% (ranked sixth), Oklahoma City has a winning 12-6 record SU when it has a TOV% of 15.5% or greater.
