Super Bowl 50 Preview and Odds Analysis

Game Match-Up:

The Carolina Panthers will bring the 2016 NFL MVP Cam Newton’s red hot offense, with a Luke Kuechly led, opportunistic defense, to the San Francisco 49ers field in Santa Clara . The Denver Broncos bring a stifling defense who ranked number one in sacks and was ranked first in the NFL overall. The Broncos will field an average performing offense, led by the future first ballot Hall of Fame quarterback, Peyton Manning.

Ron Rivera’s Panthers will look to use the multi-faceted quarterback Cam Newton to keep the Bronco’s aggressive pass rush in reverse. The NFC Champions hope to take advantage of some recent shaky performances by Peyton Manning, causing the five time NFL MVP to throw some interceptions and put their potent offense in some short field situations.

The Denver Broncos hope to re-energize a lethargic running game to keep pressure off their signal-caller Peyton Manning. The offensive line will also try to generate enough time for the talented receiving corps to get in some open space. Defense was the key to Denver’s success all season long. They will look to shut down the consistent running game of the Panthers and force Cam Newton to succumb to the relentless pressure that they can create, if they can keep him in the pocket.

Carolina Conference Title Game Breakdown:

The overwhelming 49-15 beat down of Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals was a culmination of everything that the Carolina Panthers worked on from the preseason till then. It paid off, resulting in the Panthers second trip to the Super Bowl. The offense had a very effective rushing attack producing 152 yards on 37 carries. Stewart rumbled for 83 yards on 19 carries and Newton tallied another 47 yards on 10 carries with two touchdowns. Teddy Ginn Jr. even took a reverse for 22 yards and a score.

More importantly, Newton and Jonathon Stewart ripped of some big runs that opened up the play-action pass, where Carolina’s signal-caller was seven out of seven for 127 yards. Newton completed 19 of his 28 passes for 335 yards and two more touchdowns.

Tight-end Greg Olsen continues to produce as Newton’s favorite target. He reeled in six catches for 113 yards, 54 of them off of that play-action we mentioned above. The Miami Hurricane draftee has secured himself as one of the NFL’s top tight-ends with his production in 2015. Philly Brown, the second year receiver out of Ohio State, gave his best performance of the year. He nabbed 4 receptions for 113 yards and a touch down. Teddy Ginn Jr., another Buckeye, caught two balls for 52 yards.

Carolina’s defense once again proved to be opportunistic. They pressured Palmer relentlessly, sacking him on three occasions and knocking him to the ground another six times. As a result of this pressure, the Arizona quarterback served up four interceptions, one being returned for a touchdown by All-Pro linebacker Luke Kuechly.

Some credit has to be given to cornerback Josh Norman and safety Kurt Coleman. Norman only yielded two receptions off of five targets, for 21 yards and Kurt Coleman picked off two passes and was superb in helping in over the top coverage. Though relenting to some big plays throughout 2015, they have been a solid combination all season.

Denver Conference Title Breakdown:

The AFC Super Bowl representatives held Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in check by relying on a defense that was ranked first in the NFL for most of the season. Peyton Manning looked remarkably spry and more nimble on his feet than he had in years. His passes seemed to be crisper than we’ve seen since his return from his injury three weeks ago. The two forces culminated in a 20-18 win on home soil, launching them into the Super Bowl.

Manning wasn’t stellar, but he was efficient. He tossed the rock for 176 yards on 32 attempts, completing 17 of them for two touchdowns. Two of those scores were impressive passes to tight-end  Jacob Tamme. The first was an accurate 21-yard, down the middle pass, and the other was lofted perfectly in his his hands from 12 yards out. Manning did see some pressure from the Patriots front seven but managed to move around enough to get some easy throws. More importantly, he didn’t throw any interceptions, which had been a recent problem for the aging leader.

The run game for Denver wasn’t a factor at all. The Mile-High club finished 17th on the year running the football, but was smothered from the outset. Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson mustered up 88 yards on 27 carries combined, with no touchdowns. It’ll be a long day in the Super Bowl if that’s the performance they extract from these two.

The wide receivers looked average at best. Emmanuel Sanders once again was Manning’s favorite target (8 times). He caught five footballs for 62 yards. Demaryius “Butterfingers” Thomas, who finished fifth in the NFL in drops, only brought in two passes for 12 measly yards. Things wont get any easier when Josh Norman lines up in front of them.

When truly reviewing the offensive stats, it’s a wonder how the Broncos even came close to winning a conference title. Wonder no longer. The “Orange Crush Defense” has been resurrected. Denver’s defensive unit rose to the occasion once again. Collectively they pressured Tom Brady to the tune of three sacks, 10 passes defended, 17 quarterback hits and three tackles for a loss. If it wasn’t for tight end Rob Gronkowski’s super-human peformence, Brady would have thrown for under 200 yards.

Equally impressive, they held New England’s running backs to 44 yards on 14 carries. Tom Brady had the Patriots longest run at 11 yards. If they can mount that kind of opposition against the Panther’s 2015 second rated rushing attack, it will give Denver a chance to keep this one close in the fourth quarter.

Super Bowl Match-Up Analysis:

Although this match-up exhibits premier quarterbacks from the past and the present, a defensive battle could quite possibly unfold. If this is the scenario that plays out, Denver’s chances to cover the +5.5 can become a reality. They will need a career performance from Demaryius Thomas. Production from the running game combined with offensive line protection, will be the key in giving Manning time to make accessible throws.

Carolina’s offensive performances throughout these playoffs has been unmatched for quite sometime. With every passing performance, the Super Bowl bound Panthers, really are starting to look like a team of destiny.  Their sixth ranked total defense is no slouch either. With the Panther’s ability top stop the run (4th), and the ability to create turnovers, the aging Manning needs to become a game manager, instead of pushing the ball down field. Denver’s vaunted defense will have its moments, holding the explosive Panthers down from their last two outputs, but four quarters is too much to ask.

With their one-two punch of Stewart and Newton, Carolina runs the ball effectively against everybody. This will be the best offensive line the Bronco’s have seen all year. That is not good news for a defense that doesn’t like to play on its heels. Carolina looks to be the most complete team of the two. Too many offensive opportunities through play-action could develop because of the balanced attack the Panthers bring to the table. I look for Greg Olsen to have a good day and Cam Newton to use his legs to escape when needed.

Denver will find a way to score some points through the air and the kicking game, maybe supported by a short field from a turnover, but it wont be enough. The Panthers have too many ways to break you down over four quarters, in all three phases of the game. Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers become the 50th Super Bowl Champions. Panthers 27 Broncos 20. Give me the over at 45 and the cover at -5.5. Keep an eye on this total as it very well might rise come game time.