Don’t expect a high-scoring game when the Texas Longhorns (14-7) travel to Baylor to play the No. 17-ranked Bears (17-4). The game starts at 9:00 pm ET on Monday, Feb. 1 and will air on ESP and ES3.
The Bears were victorious over Georgia 83-73 on Saturday. Rico Gathers led all scorers on the team with 17 points on 6-for-12 shooting. The Longhorns are coming off a 72-58 win over Vanderbilt on Saturday. Kerwin Roach Jr. played well, recording 15 points and 11 rebounds to claim his first double-double of the season.
The Bears could own the offensive glass in this matchup, as they rank fifth in the nation in OR% at 41.0%. Conversely, Texas places 294th in the nation on the defensive backboards with a DR% of 67.6%.
Baylor, a six-point favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Texas. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is 139 points. Even with a positive Straight Up (SU) record of 17-4, the Bears are 5-9-1 Against The Spread (ATS) in those games. Baylor has been steady from the free throw line, shooting a stellar .734. Baylor is known to control the offensive glass, where it racks up an impressive 14.0 offensive rebounds per game. Few teams in the nation have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio than Baylor, which ranks seventh at 1.61.
Across the court, the Longhorns head into the game with records of 9-11 ATS and 14-7 SU. When it comes to defending the rim, the Longhorns are one of the best in the nation with an average of 5.0 blocks per game.
These conference rivals will be facing off in their first head-to-head contest of the season. When they last met the Longhorns were winners, taking the head-to-head record to an even 5-5 SU over their most recent meetings. However, with a 6-4 record, Texas has the advantage ATS. Baylor topped the Longhorns in three key areas (field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers) once over the last five matchups. Texas has never had the edge in all three categories.
Predictions: SU Winner – Baylor, ATS Winner – Baylor, O/U – Over
Notes
Baylor is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Baylor is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baylor’s last 9 games.
Baylor is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home.
Baylor is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baylor’s last 9 games when playing Texas.
Baylor is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas.
Baylor is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games when playing at home against Texas.
Baylor and Texas hold winning records against the Big 12 Conference this season. The Baylor Bears sit at 6-2 SU and the Texas Longhorns have a 5-3 record.
Texas scores an average of just 73.2 points per game (ranked 184th). Baylor ranks 86th in points allowed, giving up 67.6 points per game.
Texas scores just 68.5 points per away game (ranked 210th). Baylor ranks 63rd in points allowed at home, giving up 63.3 points.
The Baylor Bears have a defensive rating of 98.6 (ranked 88th), while the Texas Longhorns have an offensive rating of 108.4 (ranked 107th).
Texas has an average field goal percentage of 43.5%. Baylor is a winning 7-4 when opponents have a similar or higher field goal percentage.
The Baylor Bears rank higher based on their field goal percentage (33rd) than their effective field goal percentage (59th). The Texas Longhorns rank higher based on their effective field goal percentage (196th) than their field goal percentage (208th).
The Baylor Bears rank second in assists per game with an average of 20.2. The Texas Longhorns are among the worst in the country with 11.5 assists per game (ranked 306th).
Texas, the 44th-ranked team in blocked shots, registers an average of 5.0 per game. Baylor does worse, ranked 108th with 4.0.
Baylor is one of the best teams in the country when it comes to offensive rebounds, ranking 16th. Texas ranks just 237th in defensive rebounds.
Opponents have had an average turnover percentage of 20.9% when playing Baylor this season. Texas is undefeated (3-0) when its TO% is 20.9% or higher.
