The Southern’s top team will be at home when the Chattanooga Mocs (18-3) welcome the Citadel Bulldogs (10-12) to McKenzie Arena. Action begins at 7:00 pm ET on Monday, Feb. 1.
The Bulldogs, meanwhile, are coming off a 78-75 win against VMI on Saturday. Derrick Henry was the game’s top scorer, accounting for 21 points on 6-for-13 shooting.
McLean and Justin Tuoyo have been better than usual over the last five games for the Mocs. During that stretch, McLean has averaged 15.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.6 steals, and 1.2 three-pointers, while Tuoyo has recorded 17.4 points, 5.6 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 0.8 steals, and 2.2 blocks a game.
When evaluating eFG%, the Mocs could have a healthy advantage on offense. They’re ranked 33rd in the nation in that category at 54.1%, while the suspect defense of Citadel is ranked 350th in eFG% defense, allowing opponents to connect at a rate of 56.7% this year.
This is the second game of the year between these two teams, with the Mocs winning the first matchup 84-78. McLean had a stellar game with 18 points, nine rebounds, three steals, and one block.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Chattanooga, a big 18-point favorite, takes on Citadel. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently 175 points. The Mocs have gone 18-3 Straight Up (SU) and 10-6 Against The Spread (ATS). Over their last 10 games, they have had success covering the spread (6-2). The Mocs have no trouble scoring as they rank 40th in the nation in home offense with 84.4 points per game. The Mocs are one of the best in Division I in terms of field-goal percentage, shooting an impressive .386 from beyond the arc. As for the Chattanooga defense, opponents have consistently had the ball stolen by the Mocs, who rank 27th in the country in steals per game with 8.2. Chattanooga will look to take advantage of the Bulldogs and their propensity to foul. Citadel ranks 350th in the nation in fouls, averaging 24.6 per game.
Over on the other bench, the Bulldogs have records of 8-6 ATS and 10-12 SU. Offensively, they average 89.6 points per game, which is tops in the country. The Bulldogs rely heavily on three-pointers on offense, ranking third in the nation with 258 made (11.0 per game). The Bulldogs are an unselfish team with an average of 16.9 assists per game, ranking 22nd in Division I. Moving on to the Citadel defense, the Bulldogs are a terror in the passing lanes, averaging an impressive 9.5 steals per game.
In their previous meeting this season, Chattanooga beat Citadel, bumping its SU record to 8-2 over Citadel in their most recent meetings. The teams are even ATS, with a 4-4-2 record. Chattanooga held the edge in field goals, rebounds, and three-pointers once, while Citadel was never able to do so in their most recent five games.
Predictions: SU Winner – Chat, ATS Winner – Chat, O/U – Over
Notes
Chattanooga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chattanooga’s last 6 games.
Chattanooga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing The Citadel.
Chattanooga is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against The Citadel.
Chattanooga has allowed an average of 66.8 points per game this season. Citadel averages 89.6 points per game, placing the team tops in the nation in scoring.
Citadel leads all teams in points per away game this season, averaging 87.1 points. Conversely, Chattanooga allows a whopping 65.6 points per game at home (ranked 109th).
Ranked 57th, the Chattanooga Mocs have an offensive rating of 112.3. The Citadel Bulldogs rank 332nd with a defensive rating of just 112.2.
The Citadel Bulldogs average 82.7 possessions per game and 1.083 points per possession. The Chattanooga Mocs earn fewer possessions with 68.0, but they score more points with 1.123.
Citadel has an average effective field goal percentage of 52.0%. Chattanooga is a fantastic 8-2 when opponents have a similar or higher effective field goal percentage.
Chattanooga attempts an average of 21.0 three pointers per game and Citadel attempts 35.0. In games where they have 20 or more three point attempts, the Chattanooga Mocs have a superb 11-2 record while the Citadel Bulldogs have a 10-12 record.
Chattanooga ranks 64th in the nation with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.25. Citadel is ranked lower at 115th with an A/TO of 1.16.
Making 9.5 steals per game, Citadel is ranked sixth in the country. Chattanooga has a winning 4-1 record when it allows at least 9 steals.
